Incomes· Economic growth Elephants, globalisation, and why we shouldn’t let domestic policy makers off the hook on living standards 13 September 2016 by Torsten Bell From political rallies to university seminars, it is becoming fashionable to say that globalisation has led to stagnant living standards for working and middle classes of the developed world, leaving national governments powerless to deliver rising incomes and explaining rising political dissatisfaction with the status quo. But these are dangerous words in such simple form, … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Economic growth Blind men and the elephant: what does the elephant curve really tell us about rich countries? 13 September 2016 by Adam Corlett There is an Asian parable about a group of blind men and an elephant. The men try to determine by touch what the elephant is like, but each touches a different part of the great creature – a leg, the trunk, an ear… – and so each comes to a different conclusion. In contrast, commentary on … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Labour market· Social mobility Our education system is tilted against social mobility 12 September 2016 by David Willetts We like to think that a modern society is open and mobile – and our failures on social mobility really matter to Theresa May. It is one of the reasons for successive waves of education reform, the latest of which is being debated in parliament today, sparking a fiery debate about grammar schools not seen for … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Incomes· Social mobility· Economy and public finances Prime Minister’s ambition to help the 2.1 million “just managing” families means tearing down the “here and now” barriers to social mobility 9 September 2016 by Torsten Bell It’s understandable and right that all politicians want to focus on social mobility. Having “a fair chance to go as far as their talent and their hard work will allow”, as the Prime Minister said today, is what everyone wants for themselves and their children. And as a society the last thing we can afford … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay Backslide or double down – how should the Prime Minister handle the National Living Wage? 7 September 2016 by Conor D’Arcy Theresa May has only been in her new job for a couple of months but she’s already put her stamp on the government. The most obvious break from the previous administration has been the change of personnel. But while the previous Chancellor and his allies are no longer around the Cabinet table, it may be … Continued READ MORE
Firms· Prices & consumption· Economic growth Businesses’ Brexit concerns haven’t stopped us shopping 18 August 2016 by Matthew Whittaker Business are worried about Brexit, but consumers haven’t got the memo. That’s the state of play from the limited evidence that has emerged since the vote on 23 June. In the short term firms and people can have different views about its impact. But, just as in the long run we are all dead, so … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Migration What might lower migration mean for workers, employers and government policy? 16 August 2016 by Stephen Clarke Immigration was one of the most important issues in the recent EU referendum, with some polls even putting it as people’s biggest concern. There has been much debate about whether widespread migration has squeezed the pay of British workers. This often gets pulled towards two extremes; some argue that migration has no effect on people’s … Continued READ MORE
Housing A tale of two cities 5 August 2016 by Lindsay Judge Housing affordability is often depicted as primarily a London problem but is this really the case? New analysis from the Resolution Foundation suggests that while the capital may be at the epicentre, the housing storm now rages far and wide. London itself is a tale of two cities. Home ownership rates in Inner London have … Continued READ MORE
Macroeconomic policy The Bank has acted, but the real drama is yet to come 4 August 2016 by Matthew Whittaker While the time since the UK voted to leave the EU can still be measured in weeks rather than months, evidence is starting to come in on the extent to which that decision is impacting on the economy. It will be a while longer before we get hard data on output, but the picture painted … Continued READ MORE
Cities and regions· Housing Home ownership struggle reaches Coronation Street 2 August 2016 by Stephen Clarke Handwringing about the housing crisis has become a national pastime. Not surprising perhaps, with home ownership becoming an increasingly unrealistic dream for many younger families. This was once a London-centric issue, but there is growing evidence to suggest the crisis is spreading across the rest of the country – with Manchester and other big northern … Continued READ MORE
Macroeconomic policy The Bank will bring out its sledgehammer this week – but it needs to explain which nut it’s trying to crack 2 August 2016 by Torsten Bell On Thursday the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee is going to act for the first time since July 2012. Expect general excitement as one part of the British state gets round to doing something big in the wake of the Brexit vote. But this excitement should be matched by realism about what the Bank … Continued READ MORE
Brexit & trade· Economy and public finances Five charts that tell the story so far of the post-referendum economy 20 July 2016 by Matthew Whittaker and David Finch Perhaps the only certainty in relation to the UK at the moment is that things look very uncertain. Longer-term, much will depend on just what Brexit ends up meaning. Shorter-term, most economists expect some form of demand-led slowdown – with general business and consumer uncertainty pulling back on investment and spending and sharp falls in … Continued READ MORE
Labour market “Ordinary, working people” and the rise of self-employment 20 July 2016 by Daniel Tomlinson Theresa May undoubtedly has a lot to focus on, but she was clear last week that her government will be “completely, absolutely, unequivocally – at the service of ordinary, working people”. Which raises the question: who are these people? We had a helpful reminder from the ONS last week that a typical working person is … Continued READ MORE
Housing Could a Brexit-induced house price fall benefit those who are struggling with housing costs? 19 July 2016 by Lindsay Judge In a world full of gloomy post-referendum prognostics is there anything for low to middle income households to be cheerful about? In recent research we have shown that rising housing costs have dragged down living standards over the last two decades. Could a Brexit-induced drop in house prices be the silver lining for these hard-pressed … Continued READ MORE
Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy Responsibility for avoiding a post-Brexit downturn rests as much with our politicians as our economists 18 July 2016 by Matthew Whittaker Despite boasting an impressive track record for inaction in recent years, the Monetary Policy Committee’s decision to leave rates on hold last week still surprised many. Expectations had built following Mark Carney’s statement on 30 June that post-Brexit “deterioration” in the economic outlook meant that “some monetary policy easing [would] be required over the Summer”. … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Intergenerational Centre Renewing the intergenerational contract could be as important to future generations as a successful EU exit 18 July 2016 by David Willetts We have become very sensitive to inequities of class or race or gender. But we have been ignoring a growing new problem – unfairness between the generations. When I wrote The Pinch six years ago it was the first book looking at Britain from the point of view of the different generations. Since then it … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Brexit & trade Why did we vote to leave? What an analysis of place can tell us about Brexit 15 July 2016 by Stephen Clarke So much has happened since the UK voted to leave the EU that it is hard to believe that the result was announced just three weeks ago. Already the pop analysis of what influenced the referendum outcome is becoming received wisdom, with politicians and others competing to see who can best deal with the sources … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Low pay· Pay No jobs-killer as employers take a ‘suck it and see’ approach to the National Living Wage 11 July 2016 by Conor D’Arcy With all the economic and political tumult of the past couple of weeks, the launch of the National Living Wage (NLW) already feels a long time ago. But it’s only been three months since the government’s flagship labour market policy came into force. As with Brexit, we’ll need to wait before judging the full impact … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Intergenerational Centre· Political parties and elections Repairing the painful fractures between generations will be a crucial task for the new Prime Minister 3 July 2016 by David Willetts and Torsten Bell There’s a lot to do, and no-one around to do it. That’s the conclusion from Britain’s first week as a country on a course for Brexit. Most debate, and financial market turmoil, is focused on the huge task of redefining Britain’s role in the world. Whether we like it or not, and whether our leaders … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Brexit & trade Are we set for a Brexit-induced cost of living crisis? 28 June 2016 by Matthew Whittaker What impact will Brexit have on living standards? It is of course far too early to make any sensible assessment about the longer-term picture, particularly as this will depend on the details of the UK’s new relationship with Europe. But clearly the world has already changed. The business and consumer uncertainty generated by last week’s … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Housing Prioritising the housing headwind in the debate on living standards 28 June 2016 by Lindsay Judge Much has been made in recent days of the role that living standards may have played in the Brexit vote. But while we often hear about pay and jobs, the crucial question of housing has been largely absent from the discussion. A new Resolution Foundation report published today shows why housing costs need to be … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Incomes· Brexit & trade· Inequality & poverty The referendum, living standards and inequality 24 June 2016 by Torsten Bell Today’s result is what earthquakes in politics look like. It will have big long term impacts on the future living standards of the British people – impacts on employment, pay and prices that will matter much more to people than today’s falls in the value of Sterling or the stock market, bad though those are. … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Scotland Scotland continues to be the odd man out in Britain’s post-crisis jobs recovery 15 June 2016 by Conor D’Arcy Scotland’s been something of the odd-man-out lately. Missing out on Euro 2016 was bad enough but today’s latest labour market figures confirm that Scotland’s jobs market continues to under-perform compared to the rest of the UK. The turnaround has been rapid. As recently as October 2015, the Scottish employment rate was 74.8 per cent – … Continued READ MORE
Housing High housing costs are a particular strain on Britain’s growing army of private renters 16 May 2016 by Lindsay Judge Much of the housing debate focuses on the struggle to get on the housing ladder. It’s easy to see why. Imagine you are a middle income family wanting to buy an average priced home. Twenty years ago, if you budgeted carefully and put aside five per cent of your income each year for a deposit … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay Waging war on non-compliance 11 May 2016 by Laura Gardiner Big policy wins – those that shift the argument among politicos and have a real impact on people’s lives – are few and far between. Ask commentators to name the biggest success in recent decades and the National Minimum Wage (NMW) would be a top choice. So much so that last summer the Conservative chancellor … Continued READ MORE
