Jobs· Labour market Labour Market Outlook Q3 2021 Prospects for unemployment after the Job Retention Scheme 5 September 2021 by Hannah Slaughter and Greg Thwaites As the economy has continued to reopen over the summer, the labour market has continued to surprise on the upside. After peaking at 5.2 per cent in Q4 2020, the headline unemployment rate has continued to fall, reaching 4.7 per cent in Q2 2021 – and timelier, though more volatile, single-month data has the unemployment … Continued READ MORE
Jobs· Labour market Football went to Rome, holidays came home The impact of ‘staycations’ on the UK’s labour market 29 July 2021 by Nye Cominetti As with last year, many holiday makers will be spending this summer in the UK. So in this Spotlight we look at the implications of another year of ‘staycations’ for the UK’s labour market. The tourism industry has been hit hard by the Covid-19 crisis For much of the past 18 months there have been … Continued READ MORE
Jobs· Labour market Understanding the labour market: pandemic not pandemonium The labour market is normalising, not overheating 28 June 2021 by Torsten Bell and Kathleen Henehan and Krishan Shah and Hannah Slaughter and Greg Thwaites The mild euphoria phase of the economic commentary cycle has arrived somewhat earlier than after previous downturns. This is a big change from the excessive pessimism of late 2020. According to some, we have “eye popping growth” to look forward to as “Brexit Britain Booms”. For the labour market, this turn to optimism has seen … Continued READ MORE
Jobs· Job quality and security Four of a kind Analysis of trade union membership statistics 27 May 2021 by Daniel Tomlinson The Covid-19 labour market shock has changed many things, but one little-noticed pre-pandemic trend has continued: a steady increase in trade union membership. Over the past year the number of employees who are members of unions has increased by 118,000. This is the fourth year in a row in which membership has increased among employees. … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Jobs· Skills· Intergenerational Centre Uneven steps Changes in youth unemployment and study since the onset of Covid-19 14 April 2021 by Kathleen Henehan In order to reduce the spread of Covid-19, and thereby save lives, large sectors of the UK economy were temporarily shut down during parts of 2020 and 2021. Although unemployment rose by less than anticipated during this period, with the unemployment rate among people aged 16 and older rising by just over one percentage point … Continued READ MORE
Jobs· Earnings Outlook· Pay Earnings Outlook Q1 2021 Earnings in the Covid-19 crisis 22 March 2021 by Hannah Slaughter The UK has spent the first quarter of 2021 under renewed restrictions to slow the spread of Covid-19. As the third England-wide lockdown began in January, many businesses were forced to close once again, and the number of jobs furloughed through the Job Retention Scheme (JRS) rose to 4.8 million. There is growing light at … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Jobs· Labour market Long Covid in the labour market The impact on the labour market of Covid-19 a year into the crisis, and how to secure a strong recovery 17 February 2021 by Nye Cominetti and Kathleen Henehan and Hannah Slaughter and Greg Thwaites This is the third time we have written a report taking stock of the impact of the virus on the labour market. Nine months on from our first report in June last year, some things are similar. The health effects of the second wave may be starting to recede, and thoughts are again turning to … Continued READ MORE
Jobs· Labour market· Job quality and security Ethnic minorities in the hospitality sector Comparing the experiences of hospitality workers from different ethnic backgrounds 30 December 2020 by Sharon Mai and Nye Cominetti This briefing note looks at the experiences in the hospitality sector of workers from different ethnic backgrounds. It finds that 1 in 6 hospitality workers are from an ethnic minority background, compared to around 1 in 8 workers in the rest of the economy. Ethnic minority workers in hospitality vary both in their characteristics and … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Jobs· Job quality and security Time out Reforming Statutory Sick Pay to support the Covid-19 recovery phase 8 December 2020 by Mike Brewer and Maja Gustafsson In a pandemic, sick pay should play a crucial public health role, as well as providing income protection. But the UK’s Statutory Sick Pay is low by international standards, and misses out two million of our lowest-paid workers. Evidence suggests that this contributes to the low level of compliance with the legal obligation to self-isolate … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Jobs· Job quality and security Jobs, jobs, jobs Evaluating the effects of the current economic crisis on the UK labour market 27 October 2020 by Mike Brewer and Nye Cominetti and Kathleen Henehan and Charlie McCurdy and Rukmen Sehmi and Hannah Slaughter This report highlights which groups of workers have struggled the most as the coronavirus crisis has evolved, who is at risk as the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme is replaced by the Job Support Scheme, and the prospects for the future. READ MORE
Coronavirus· Jobs· Economy and public finances The Winter (Economy Plan) is coming Chancellor ramps economic support back up, but avoidable design flaws will limit its success in stemming the Autumn rise in unemployment 25 September 2020 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Adam Corlett and Karl Handscomb and Lindsay Judge and James Smith and Daniel Tomlinson Economic policy yesterday caught back up with the ramping back up of social distancing restrictions by the Prime Minister earlier in the week. The Chancellor rightly announced new measures rather than sticking to plans to phase out help for workers and firms. His most significant policy was the Job Support Scheme (JSS), an extended, … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Jobs· Labour market Final furlough? Six months on from the start of the Job Retention Scheme 18 September 2020 by Daniel Tomlinson At its peak in early May the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (JRS) was supporting 8.9 million jobs. As the economy has opened up in recent months take-up of the scheme has been falling, to 4.8 million by 31 July. Of these, 3.5 million (over 10 per cent of private sector employees) were still furloughed in … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Jobs· Labour market The Government is not paying nine million people’s wages The number of people currently furloughed is less than half this amount 1 August 2020 by Daniel Tomlinson From today, employers will start contributing towards the wage costs of furloughed employees. This significant first step in the phasing-out of the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (JRS) carries real risks of increased redundancies – particularly for those in the hardest-hit sectors – and so attention should also focus on the important question of just how … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Jobs· Earnings Outlook· Pay Earnings Outlook Q1 2020 What we know about how employee earnings have fared in the current crisis 16 July 2020 by Nye Cominetti and Laura Gardiner Since we last produced an Earnings Outlook (at the end of March) some things have become clearer. The scale of the impact of the current crisis is as big as was feared. This was already apparent then from the soaring claims for Universal Credit, but has since been confirmed by the 300-year-record fall in GDP, … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Jobs· Labour market· Cities and regions Local differences Responding to the local economic impact of coronavirus 14 June 2020 by Charlie McCurdy Britain’s jobs crisis has hit every part of the country hard. At a headline regional level, job loss and furloughing has been fairly evenly spread. But increases in unemployment-related benefit claims have been larger in areas that started out with higher claimant rates, with this especially true when we focus at a more local level. … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Jobs· Labour market The effects of the coronavirus crisis on workers Flash findings from the Resolution Foundation’s coronavirus survey 16 May 2020 by Laura Gardiner and Hannah Slaughter The coronavirus crisis has hit workers hard: the numbers of those furloughed and those newly claiming Universal Credit illustrates the scale. To date, however, we have had very limited information about which types of people have been most affected. In this spotlight, we begin to fill this gap with flash findings from the Resolution Foundation’s … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Jobs Getting Britain working (safely) again The next phase of the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme 12 May 2020 by Torsten Bell and Laura Gardiner and Daniel Tomlinson The Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (JRS) has been a major public policy success. The unprecedented step of paying 80 per cent of the wages for 6.3 million jobs has made it possible to ask people to stay at home to save lives. This paper explores how the JRS should evolve as restrictions on activity are … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Jobs Risky business Economic impacts of the coronavirus crisis on different groups of workers 28 April 2020 by Maja Gustafsson and Charlie McCurdy The coronavirus crisis has affected everyone. Everyone’s health is at risk and to combat the disease, working lives have been altered across the country. But some are affected more than others: the relationship between the kind of job people have and their exposure to big economic or health risks in this crisis is by no … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Jobs· Labour market Launching an economic lifeboat The impact of the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme 20 April 2020 by Daniel Tomlinson Summary Today marks the opening of the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (JRS), a scheme entirely without precedent in the UK. Its primary objective is to share the economic pain of this crisis by keeping unemployment much lower than it otherwise would have been. Indeed, although we estimate that non-working could increase by as much … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Jobs· Job quality and security· Low pay· Pay What happens after the clapping finishes? The pay, terms and conditions we choose for our care workers 19 April 2020 by Nye Cominetti and Laura Gardiner and Gavin Kelly The nation has rightly come together in the current crisis to express support for our care workers. But how do we normally treat the social care workforce? Due to both long-standing and nearer-term decisions and trends, frontline care workers are: underpaid, with around half earning less than the real Living Wage; particularly vulnerable to being … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Jobs· Labour market· Job quality and security· Low pay· Pay· Skills· Migration Crystal balls vs rear-view mirrors The UK labour market after coronavirus 7 April 2020 by Hannah Slaughter and Torsten Bell Summary Sudden and significant hits to the UK labour market in recent weeks have shown that this will be a jobs recession. The focus has rightly been on how to respond to the huge numbers of people losing work, but policy makers and pundits are also beginning to ask what this crisis could mean for … Continued READ MORE
Coronavirus· Jobs· Earnings Outlook· Labour market· Pay Earnings Outlook Q4 2019 How should minimum wage policy respond to the current economic crisis? 28 March 2020 by Nye Cominetti and Karl Handscomb Usually in the Earnings Outlook we summarise the latest developments in pay and employment and use these to look forwards, with the trends moving slowly enough that the lag in our data is not too much of a problem. But with so much having changed so quickly, our normal indicators now serve as a guide … Continued READ MORE
Jobs· Labour market· Job quality and security· Low pay· Pay Working hard(ship) An exploration of poverty, work and tenure 4 February 2020 by Lindsay Judge and Hannah Slaughter This report explores the nexus between poverty, work and housing, and adds to our knowledge of the topic in two distinctive ways. First, we look at in-work poverty not just as a static but also a dynamic condition. Second, we explore the intersection between housing tenure and in-work poverty. READ MORE
Jobs· Labour market· Time use The times they aren’t a-changin’ Why working hours have stopped falling in London and the UK 18 January 2020 by George Bangham For the typical British adult, paid work takes up more time than any other activity save sleep. How many hours someone works per week is important both for their family’s income and for the way they live their lives. Over the past 200 years average working hours have gradually declined, so that the typical worker … Continued READ MORE
Jobs· Labour market· Intergenerational Centre Never ever Exploring the increase in people who’ve never had a paid job 4 January 2020 by Laura Gardiner This briefing note explores why, despite record-high employment, the proportion of working-age adults who have never had a paid job has increased, pointing to a reduction in ‘earning while learning’ as a key driver. READ MORE
