Work· Generations Welcome to adulthood, millennial 13 September 2018 by Laura Gardiner 2018 is the year in which the babies of the millennium reach adulthood. Back in January, this was mainly marked by existential online angst about how those born when Britney Spears’s ‘Oops!… I Did It Again’ was in the charts are reaching legal drinking age. Today’s 18 in 2018 publication from the Office for National … Continued READ MORE
Work Labour market statistics analysis: a tepid pay recovery is emerging 11 September 2018 by George Bangham The monthly labour market stats have followed a similar pattern for a while now; new employment records set, while pay continues to stagnate. Today’s figures haven’t quite followed the script. Take pay growth first. Nominal wage growth has nudged up to 2.9 per cent for only the second time since mid-2015, with real pay growth … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Inequality & poverty· Wealth· Cities and regions Regional wealth inequality: a nation divided 1 September 2018 by Conor D’Arcy On Monday, families across the country will be feeling a mix of excitement, anxiety and relief as kids go back to school (with Scotland having already gone through it). Experiences that unite every corner of the UK feel rarer these days, with talk of division and left-behind places common. Differences between South Shields and South … Continued READ MORE
Wealth· Tax Entrepreneurs’ Relief has cost £22 billion over the past 10 years. Was it worth it? 29 August 2018 by Adam Corlett The hunt is on for extra tax revenues. First came the announcement of an NHS funding boost, back in June. Now, the Chancellor has the harder task of working out where he will find the more than £20 billion required. Some is likely to come from higher borrowing, and better than expected public finance figures … Continued READ MORE
Work The apprenticeship levy a year on: lessons learned 23 August 2018 by Kathleen Henehan This piece originally appeared on tes. With today’s headlines focused on the trials and tribulations of A-level results and university acceptances, you’d be forgiven for thinking that a majority of today’s 18-year-olds proceed directly from the school gates into the halls of higher education. Of course, they do not: over half of today’s 19-year-olds are engaged … Continued READ MORE
Work Full employment: we’re half way there 22 August 2018 by Stephen Clarke In early 2014 the then Chancellor, George Osborne committed to ‘fight for full employment’. At the time the employment rate (for those aged 16 – 64) was 72.9 per cent and the unemployment rate (for those over 16) 6.4 per cent. The Chancellor didn’t commit to a specific figure, but his goal was to have … Continued READ MORE
Work Employers are offering a growing ‘disloyalty bonus’ – young people should take advantage 2 August 2018 by Stephen Clarke This piece was first published on i. First they took away the long-service awards: carriage clocks and gold watches; now they’re coming for your pay rises; loyalty no longer pays in UK firms. That’s the big takeaway from new Resolution Foundation research looking at what’s happening in the jobs market. In the late 1990s if … Continued READ MORE
Work Spotlight: The growing ‘disloyalty bonus’ 2 August 2018 by Stephen Clarke Working out whether it’s worth waiting for Godot relies on a clear reading of what’s happening to wage growth. One factor that influences this is the changing composition of the workforce. In the short-run one of the big changes is that since 2012 the number of people employed in the UK has risen by 2.5 … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Prices & consumption Guest blog: When the ONS changes its mind, economic policy and political reputation are on the line 30 July 2018 by Dan Corry and Peter Kenway In these ‘post-expert’ times, it’s worth remembering that good policy rests on good evidence. Our fiscal and monetary institutions don’t just set policy with reference to economic theory, but in relation to what’s going on in the economy. So – as we heard earlier this week – when history gets re-written in a way that … Continued READ MORE
Firms· Public finances· Growth Time to concentrate on our capitalism 26 July 2018 by Torsten Bell and Daniel Tomlinson Our politicians are anxious. And not just because no-one has a decent poll lead or idea where Brexit will end up. No, some are finding the time to get anxious about other things too, including the state of capitalism in the UK. The angst isn’t limited to the left either, with Michael Gove becoming a … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Inequality & poverty· Childcare· Social security A history lesson wouldn’t hurt – at least when it comes to child poverty 24 July 2018 by Torsten Bell and Adam Corlett This blog originally appeared on Times Red Box. A few years back there was an outbreak of national angst about no one studying history any more. The House of Lords even managed a debate on it. That worry seems a long way down the list of concerns these days, when everyone has the latest Donald … Continued READ MORE
Public finances We’re all social democrats now 17 July 2018 by Torsten Bell It’s Super Tuesday on the fiscal policy front. Try not to get too excited. Today a lucky world gains not only the Office for Budget Responsibility’s Fiscal Sustainability Report (the ‘FSR’ looks ages over the next 50 years to ask: ‘how bust are we if we carry on as we are’) but also the Treasury’s … Continued READ MORE
Work More good news today for low-income families, unless they want a pay rise 17 July 2018 by Stephen Clarke The Office for National Statistic’s monthly release of labour market statistics is an opportunity for economists and commentators to probe the state of the UK economy. Many Twitter characters have been spilt arguing if the figures presage faster wage growth, where employment may heading next, and what all this means for the Bank of England’s … Continued READ MORE
Migration· Work The most biddable of them all? 16 July 2018 by Lindsay Judge This piece originally appeared on Times Red Box. Today’s headlines tell us once again that net migration from the EU to the UK is down significantly since the Brexit referendum, with record levels of emigration of EU citizens and a large drop in the number of people coming from the continent looking for work. In … Continued READ MORE
Work When algorithms go to war in the workplace Businesses crunch data to gain power; workers should bend it to their own ambitions 2 July 2018 by Gavin Kelly One constant in public debate is the assertion that the world of work is on the cusp of unprecedented change. Amid the hype, one genuine source of flux is the manner in which data and technology are combining to alter workplace management and control. To date, this has been a tale of the good, the … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Cities and regions Tackling London’s living standards exodus 2 July 2018 by Conor D’Arcy Everyone knows housing is a disaster in London. This is most obvious in the ludicrous prices that properties fetch, but London’s housing problems stretch well beyond having to fork out over half a million pounds for a poky flat in Zone 2. For a start, the way people are housed in London has changed dramatically … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Growth· Cities and regions Poor productivity and high housing costs are driving a ‘living standards exodus’ from London 27 June 2018 by Stephen Clarke As a Londoner it’s fair to say that as a city we’re quite good at giving ourselves a pat on the back (though apparently self-loathing Londoners are a thing too). It’s often suggested that London is an economic powerhouse, productive, innovative and leaving the rest of the country in its wake. However new research by … Continued READ MORE
Housing Housing stress is up – and has shifted. Our debate on social housing needs to keep up 23 June 2018 by Lindsay Judge and Torsten Bell It’s a year on from Grenfell, a tragedy that has taught everyone that social housing has to return to its proper place in national debate. There’s been good progress on this front already: there are fora that give a voice to those living in social rented homes; projects which seek to define the purpose of social … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Prices & consumption· Inequality & poverty· Tax No, the poorest don’t pay higher taxes than the richest 20 June 2018 by Adam Corlett We all know that parts of the tax system are very progressive – and this should be very apparent in the Autumn Statement when the Chancellor unveils perhaps £10 billion of tax rises that will target the wealthy. But wait, some say, when you factor in taxes such as VAT it’s actually poorer households that … Continued READ MORE
Work Women are leading the charge of Britain’s impressive employment record 12 June 2018 by George Bangham Another set of labour market statistics, another round of mixed news. On pay, it’s the all-too-familiar problem of sluggish wage pay growth, with average weekly earnings still £15 below their pre-financial crisis peak (in real terms). On jobs, it’s another familiar tale, but a much more positive one – alongside overall record employment rates, the … Continued READ MORE
Social security With the benefits of benefit reform diminishing, Universal Credit needs a new direction 11 June 2018 by David Finch Another busy period of Brexit debate has pushed other big domestic issues out of the headlines. This is particularly true of Universal Credit (UC) – where two key government publications last week have slipped under the radar. In the coming year we can expect the profile of UC to rise again, with the pace of … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Inequality & poverty· Growth· Trade Dis-United Kingdom? Inequality, growth and the Brexit divide 25 May 2018 by Matthew Whittaker Much has changed in Britain since the EU referendum, but in many ways the divide that opened up around the vote feels as cavernous today as it was on the morning after the night before. That owes much to the inevitably divisive nature of a binary in/out referendum of course, but many commentators point also … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Inequality & poverty· Tax What share of tax do the top 1 per cent pay? Less than you might have heard 23 May 2018 by Adam Corlett Late last year in a PMQs exchange about tax, the Prime Minister said that “the top 1 per cent of earners in this country are paying 28 per cent of the tax burden” – “the highest percentage ever”. She’s not alone in saying this. As statistics go, this one is remarkably popular in newspapers, parliament … Continued READ MORE
Work Tackling the new frontiers of low pay 23 May 2018 by Conor D’Arcy Bad policies get the most attention. Whole books have been written on government interventions that achieved the exact opposite of what they intended, or eventually delivered at miles over budget. That’s why the UK’s minimum wage – effective, popular and cheap – is such a rare thing. The latest evidence confirms the minimum wage’s continued … Continued READ MORE
Work· Growth Introducing….Hamilton – The Industrial Strategy 21 May 2018 by David Willetts Today’s science speech by the Prime Minister shows how much she has in common with the great Alexander Hamilton – though she has not got her own musical yet. Hamilton’s great rival Jefferson had a picture of America as sturdy yeoman farmers enjoying their liberties under a minimalist Government. Hamilton instead saw the Federal Government … Continued READ MORE
