Growth Growth Mais-day Resolution Foundation response to the Chancellor’s 2026 Mais Lecture 18 March 2026 by Sophie Hale The Chancellor’s reaffirmation of her commitment to focusing on the UK’s miserable growth rate is welcome and reflects the scale of the UK’s challenge: a decade of exceptionally weak growth and a fragile outlook shaped by global risks. The Chancellor evolved her approach slightly and set out three new priorities: regional growth, innovation and closer … Continued READ MORE
Growth Mountain climbing Making progress on the UK’s growth policy challenge 19 January 2026 by Elliott Christensen and Nye Cominetti and Sophie Hale and Greg Thwaites Despite recent green shoots,the UK’s growth problem remains severe. This report assesses the Government’s progress on growth policy and suggests bolder action on trade, housebuilding and employment is essential to raise productivity, incomes and living standards. READ MORE
Public finances· Growth Trend setters What is the OBR’s forecast for trend productivity growth, and why it matters so much for the Budget 14 October 2025 by Greg Thwaites and Elliott Christensen The Budget in November is likely to reveal a significant deterioration in the outlook for the public finances, requiring the Government to raise taxes in response. A key reason for this is what the Office for Budget Responsibility will assume about how fast the economy can sustainably grow. It has been eight years since this … Continued READ MORE
Growth· Trade Trump Tariff turmoil The impact of higher US tariffs and the risk of a global recession 14 April 2025 by James Smith and Emily Fry and Greg Thwaites President Trump’s tariff announcements have taken a wrecking ball to the global system of international trade, pushing US tariff rates back to early 20th century levels. Following the suspension of ‘reciprocal’ tariffs, the UK’s exposure to automotive and possible “major” pharmaceutical tariffs, means we are set to be affected by more than many other countries, … Continued READ MORE
Growth Yanked away Accounting for the post-pandemic productivity divergence between Britain and America 8 April 2025 by Simon Pittaway Britain’s record of productivity growth in the 2010s was dismal. But halfway through the 2020s things appear to have got worse not better, with official data likely understating the scale of Britain’s ongoing productivity crisis. America has been on a different track so far this decade. It is the only G7 economy where productivity growth … Continued READ MORE
Growth How to do industrial strategy A guide for practitioners 7 April 2025 by David Willetts This paper sets out a practical approach to industrial strategy in the UK, focused on boosting private investment and productivity. It proposes twenty policy tools spanning sectors, technologies, places, funding and state capability, with a clear roadmap for policymakers. READ MORE
Growth The art of strategy How to make a success of the Government’s new Industrial Strategy 9 December 2024 by Greg Thwaites and David Willetts This report critiques the Government’s Invest 2035 industrial strategy Green Paper. It calls for investing in better data and workforce skills, using public procurement as an instrument, and leaning in to the trade-offs when allocating public investment across regions and industries. READ MORE
Growth The growth mindset Sizing up the Government’s growth agenda 19 September 2024 by Emily Fry and Greg Thwaites This report evaluates the UK government’s growth agenda, focusing on policies in infrastructure, housing, and trade. It highlights potential productivity gains and suggests broader reforms to meet ambitious growth targets, aiming to position the UK as the fastest-growing G7 economy. READ MORE
Growth· Net zero Net zeroing in on investment Priorities for the new Government in delivering a fair transition 22 July 2024 by Jonathan Marshall Cutting carbon in the second half of the 2020s is all about investment, but high upfront costs and wider economic woes mean these could be insurmountable for many. This paper outlines priorities to ensure this transition is navigated as fairly as possible. READ MORE
General Election 2024· Growth· Trade Life in the slow lane Assessing the UK’s economic and trade performance since 2010 9 June 2024 by Emily Fry and Simon Pittaway and Greg Thwaites This briefing note is the third output in a programme of outputs designed to put the upcoming UK general election in context, supported by the Nuffield Foundation. It looks at the performance of the UK economy and trade since 2010. The UK grew faster than other G7 economies in the first quarter of 2024 but, … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Inequality & poverty· Housing· Growth· Cities and regions· Economy 2030 Talking trade-offs Deliberations on a higher-productivity future in the Birmingham and Greater Manchester urban areas 30 November 2023 by Tania Burchardt and Tara Goatley and Lindsay Judge The cities of Manchester and Birmingham may have illustrious economic histories, but today both underperform the national average on a number of key economic measures. This is especially the case when it comes to productivity growth. Accelerating productivity in each city region would require radical reforms trade-offs to be made, but these changes cannot be … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Growth· Economy 2030 From safety net to springboard Designing an unemployment insurance scheme to protect living standards and boost economic dynamism 21 September 2023 by Mike Brewer and Louise Murphy Losing your job in Britain is a very risky business. Low levels of out-of-work benefits are rarely an adequate safety net for those who experience job loss, and workers in the UK who move out of work are at greater risk of experiencing a large income loss than those in most other OECD countries. Some … Continued READ MORE
Work· Growth Wages are flatlining 22 March 2023 by Torsten Bell and Charlie McCurdy This Thursday, the Bank of England (BoE)’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets. Discussion of whether the central bank has one final rate rise in it before pausing have focused on whether the Bank’s hand will be stayed by the instability we are seeing playing out in the banking sector from Silicon Valley to Switzerland (in … Continued READ MORE
Growth· Economy 2030 Minding the (productivity and income) gaps Decomposing and understanding differences in productivity and income across countries 3 February 2023 by Krishan Shah and Greg Thwaites This week’s round of international economic forecasts (from the IMF, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of England) has seen a renewed focus on the UK’s relative economic decline. But while gloomy forecasts about the coming years dominate headlines this expected weak economic growth comes on the back of 15 years of the UK … Continued READ MORE
Monetary policy· Growth· Macroeconomic policy Slower for longer The Bank of England tightens monetary policy again and warns that the outlook is bleak 4 August 2022 by Jack Leslie and James Smith The Bank of England today unveiled the biggest rise in interest rates since 1995 along with plans to bring down the stock of Quantitative Easing (QE) by £80 billion over the next year. But the real news in today’s announcements was the extent to which the central bank expects the cost of living crisis to … Continued READ MORE
Firms· Growth· Trade· Cities and regions· Economy 2030 The Big Brexit An assessment of the scale of change to come from Brexit 22 June 2022 by Swati Dhingra and Emily Fry and Sophie Hale and Ningyuan Jia Leaving the EU represents the largest change in the UK’s relationship with the rest of the world in nearly half a century. It is a profound change in economic governance, that will reorient production away from trade with the EU and towards the domestic market, impacting people, places and firms across the UK. Understanding the … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Growth Are you better off today? Real income growth under different governments since 1955 3 November 2021 by Adam Corlett In the 1980 presidential contest between the incumbent Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan, the latter asked voters “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?”. Although far from the only question that voters do or should ask, it is a reasonable question. In the UK, since 1955, real household disposable income per … Continued READ MORE
Firms· Growth· Covid-19 On firm ground? The impact of Covid-19 on firms and what policy makers should do in response 10 February 2021 by Nye Cominetti and Jack Leslie and James Smith The coronavirus crisis has had huge repercussions across the economy, and the corporate sector is no exception. This paper analyses how the crisis has affected firms’ finances, puts that in context compared to previous recessions, and assesses the ability of firms to contribute to the post-crisis recovery. This is important because firms’ investment and hiring … Continued READ MORE
Growth· Macroeconomic policy Macroeconomic Policy Outlook Q4 2020 28 December 2020 by James Smith and Torsten Bell and Karl Handscomb and Jack Leslie and Cara Pacitti and Nye Cominetti This is our regular Macro Policy Outlook, providing a policy-focused take on the economy. In this edition, we focus on the labour market, and the prospects for unemployment. This edition of the Macro Policy Outlook looks ahead to prospects for 2021. The early months of next year will pick up where 2020 left off, … Continued READ MORE
Growth· Covid-19 Wake me up when November ends The economic outlook amid Lockdown II 3 November 2020 by Torsten Bell We’ve got less than 48 hours until a second national lockdown in England begins, and who knows how long until it comes to an end. Pubs, hotels, and hairdressers’ doors will close again across England – as they have been in Wales since 23 October – with the significant tightening of restrictions representing the final … Continued READ MORE
Work· Growth Dead-end relationship? Exploring the link between productivity and workers’ living standards 16 January 2020 by Matthew Whittaker Summary The strength of the relationship between productivity growth and median pay growth – and what it means for the way in which the gains from economic growth are shared across the workforce – has been questioned in recent years, with evidence of a ‘decoupling’ of the two across a number of advanced economies. Such … Continued READ MORE
Public finances· Growth· Macroeconomic policy The beginning of the end… …but not the end of the beginning Governor Carney’s valedictory speech discusses the future of the UK’s monetary policy remit – but this is just the start of an important debate 10 January 2020 by James Smith and Tony Yates The beginning of the end… After several false starts, the appointment of his successor (Andrew Bailey) means Mark Carney finally has a leaving date (15 March). He can now concentrate on the serious business of organising his leaving parties securing his legacy from his longer-than-expected time as Bank of England Governor. That all started yesterday … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances· Growth Rewriting the rules Assessing Conservative and Labour’s new fiscal frameworks 7 November 2019 by Torsten Bell and Matthew Whittaker and Cara Pacitti and Jack Leslie Fiscal rules are technical frameworks only ever focused on by a tiny fraction of the population. But they are important for government’s running of our public finances, and for having a sense of where we are heading as a country. READ MORE
Work· Growth Follow the money Exploring the link between UK growth and workers’ pay packets 30 August 2019 by Matthew Whittaker This briefing note unpicks the relationship between productivity and pay growth, looking at a variety of factors that influence pay growth for different groups of employees in the UK – from trends in the labour share to terms of trade movements, and from the role of employer pension contributions to the impact of changes in working patterns. READ MORE
Firms· Work· Growth Sorry, we’re closed: Understanding the impact of retail’s decline on people and places 27 February 2019 by Daniel Tomlinson and Laura Gardiner Headlines about shop closures might give the impression that retail’s decline is a recent phenomenon, but retail’s share of employment has been falling for 15 years. This report digs behind this long-run trend, driven by changes in what we spend and how we spend it, and focuses in on what really matters when it comes to economic change: people and places. READ MORE
