Public services· Public finances· Growth· Tax See it. Say it. Sort it. How to reset Britain’s economic policy 14 May 2026 by Matthew Cavanagh and Alex Clegg and Ruth Curtice and James Smith This briefing note sets out how the Government should reset its economic strategy against a bleak backdrop of weak growth, falling living standards, and high borrowing costs. It provides clear direction – a ruthless prioritisation of growth and focus on living standards – while calling for honesty about the scale of Britain’s problems and setting out a bold agenda for change. READ MORE
Monetary policy· Public finances· Macroeconomic policy The Macroeconomic Policy Outlook Q2 2026 22 April 2026 by Simon Pittaway and James Smith and Greg Thwaites Since the US-Israeli strikes on Iran began nearly two months ago, global energy markets have been volatile. But the shock facing Britain has so far been smaller than that which followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: UK gas prices peaked at 78p per them above pre-war levels – not 300p, as in 2022. Even so, a … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances Understatement of the year Putting the 2026 Spring Forecast in context 4 March 2026 by Hannah Aldridge and Mike Brewer and Elliott Christensen and Tom Clark and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Ruth Curtice and Julia Diniz and Sophie Hale and Lindsay Judge and Zachary Leather and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Simon Pittaway and Cillian Sheehan and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Imogen Stone and Jamie Titus-Glover and Lalitha Try The Spring Forecast was billed as a non‑event, but the underlying story is stark: weak growth, rising risks, and only a fleeting improvement in living standards. Our analysis shows why makerspolicy makers can’t rely on good fiscal luck lasting. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances Fiscal events and how to avoid them Spring Forecast 2026 preview 19 February 2026 by Elliott Christensen and Charlie McCurdy and James Smith In this slide pack we preview the upcoming Spring Forecast, assessing the economic and fiscal outlook based on news since the Autumn Budget. READ MORE
Public finances The OBR: 15 years on Resolution Foundation response to the Treasury Select Committee’s inquiry 19 February 2026 by Ruth Curtice and James Smith and Imogen Stone In December 2025, the Treasury Select Committee (TSC) launched an inquiry into the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) to assess the organisation’s performance over the past 15 years, and to input on possible reforms to the OBR’s role, remit, and how it works with the Treasury. In this spotlight, we set out our response to … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Firms· Public finances New Year Outlook 2026 Early and encouraging signs of a mild zombie apocalypse 5 January 2026 by Ruth Curtice and Greg Thwaites What a difference a year doesn’t make. This time last year the Government had just announced huge tax rises, having previously said they weren’t coming; trade wonks were wondering what Donald Trump’s next tariff policy would be; and Labour politicians awaited the May elections with trepidation. Yet this sense of déjà vu is only part of the story. Beneath the surface, several things have changed in ways that will matter for the years ahead: the political system has fragmented; new technologies are starting to affect how work is done; and the UK is edging towards a demographic milestone not seen in modern times. This New Year Outlook looks back at some of the less-remarked developments of 2025, and forward to what they mean for the economy in 2026 and beyond. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances Stairway to headroom Putting the Autumn Budget 2025 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context 27 November 2025 by Hannah Aldridge and Mike Brewer and Elliott Christensen and Tom Clark and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Ruth Curtice and Julia Diniz and Sophie Hale and Lindsay Judge and Zachary Leather and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Imogen Stone and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try The Chancellor’s second tax-rising budget arrived under dark clouds, but forecasts came in better than feared. But even though she was saved from the worst predictions of past weeks, the Chancellor still faced a tough task to clear three big hurdles – fixing the public finances, easing the cost of living squeeze on families, and taxing smartly and fairly. This briefing note argues that she did clear these hurdles, albeit not flawlessly. She scraped over … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances Black holes and consolidations Previewing the key decisions for Budget 2025 4 November 2025 by Camron Aref-Adib and Elliott Christensen and Alex Clegg and Adam Corlett and Ruth Curtice and Jonathan Marshall and Louise Murphy and James Smith This make-or-break Budget is set to include significant spending cuts and tax rises spurred by a significant deterioration in the public finances. So, in this briefing note we discuss how the outlook has changed since the Spring Statement and set out how the Chancellor should respond. READ MORE
Public finances· Growth Trend setters What is the OBR’s forecast for trend productivity growth, and why it matters so much for the Budget 14 October 2025 by Greg Thwaites and Elliott Christensen The Budget in November is likely to reveal a significant deterioration in the outlook for the public finances, requiring the Government to raise taxes in response. A key reason for this is what the Office for Budget Responsibility will assume about how fast the economy can sustainably grow. It has been eight years since this … Continued READ MORE
Public finances· Tax Call of duties Revenue and reform for Autumn Budget 2025 23 September 2025 by Adam Corlett Ahead of the Budget, this report considers the options for the Government to respond decisively to a deterioration in the public finances while also making the tax system fairer and more efficient. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances A healthy State? Putting the 2025 Spending Review into context 12 June 2025 by Camron Aref-Adib and Mike Brewer and Tom Clark and Alex Clegg and Adam Corlett and Ruth Curtice and Emily Fry and Zachary Leather and Charlie McCurdy and Felicia Odamtten and Simon Pittaway and James Smith and Greg Thwaites Yesterday saw the Chancellor reveal the results of the first ‘zero-based’ review since 2008, the first stand-alone Spending Review since 2019, and the first three-year plan since 2021. It was the Government’s chance to say what its priorities are after painful announcements on higher taxes and borrowing, and then welfare cuts, at the Autumn Budget … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public services· Public finances Mission impossible? Five things to look out for at next week’s pivotal Spending Review 4 June 2025 by Ruth Curtice and James Smith After a shaky start on the economy, Ministers have been happy to emphasise three trade agreements and some better-than-expected growth in recent weeks. They will hope the Spending Review (SR), on 11 June, can be a chance to build (build, build) on this, and to flesh out more concrete plans on the Government’s other ‘missions’. … Continued READ MORE
Public services· Public finances· Investment Capital gains Public investment priorities for the 2025 Spending Review 29 April 2025 by Zachary Leather and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti and James Smith This report assesses the UK’s public investment challenges ahead of the 2025 Spending Review, highlighting legacy weaknesses in social infrastructure spending and setting out how targeted investment can boost growth and raise living standards. READ MORE
Incomes· Public services· Public finances At your service? Why the 2025 Spending Review must reckon with the distribution of public service use 9 April 2025 by Camron Aref-Adib and Emily Fry and Zachary Leather Post-Covid, the British state is estimated to have reached a historic high of 45 per cent of the size of the economy. Past strategies to cope with increasing pressure on public services such as cutting defence to help fund growing health and welfare spending, and cuts to ‘unprotected’ public services after the financial crisis, have … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances The headroom bind Spring Statement 2025 preview 17 March 2025 by James Smith and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Louise Murphy and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try In this slide pack we preview the upcoming Spring Statement, assessing the economic and fiscal outlook ahead of this key economic-policy event. We focus on the news since the Autumn Budget and the implications of different policy choices, putting the Chancellor’s upcoming decisions in a broader context. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances· Tax More, more, more Putting the Autumn Budget 2024 decisions on tax, spending and borrowing into context 31 October 2024 by Camron Aref-Adib and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Tom Clark and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Sophie Hale and Lindsay Judge and Zachary Leather and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try This has been the most anticipated Budget of modern times. It had to wrestle with profound – and sometimes conflicting – challenges: fixing the strained public services; repairing failing public services; and breaking with the UK’s dire record on public investment. And all of this had to be squared with pre-election pledges not to raise … Continued READ MORE
Public finances Over-ruled? Assessing the options for changing the fiscal rules 4 October 2024 by Cara Pacitti and James Smith Although the Chancellor said she would stick with the previous Government’s much-criticised rule of reducing public debt in the fifth year of the forecast, Rachel Reeves’s conference speech has sparked a debate about whether the fiscal rules should be changed to allow the Government to borrow more. Three options have been mooted for changing the … Continued READ MORE
General Election 2024· Public finances· Social security Under strain Investigating trends in working-age disability and incapacity benefits 20 June 2024 by Lindsay Judge and Louise Murphy The benefits bill is frequently the subject of intense political debate. But since the pandemic, working-age health-related benefits have moved centre-stage in these discussions, as policy makers aim to understand what sits behind the historical rise in claims, and to contain future pressures too. In this briefing note – part of our Election 2024 work … Continued READ MORE
General Election 2024· Public finances Debt dramas Putting the public finances in context ahead of general election 2024 4 June 2024 by Charlie McCurdy and Cara Pacitti and James Smith The public finances have already emerged as a key issue in this election. So, in this briefing note, we step back and ask how we got to where we are today, discuss where the public finances might be heading, and consider what this means for whoever forms the next government. READ MORE
Public finances· Social security· Tax Happy new tax year Six big changes to pay, tax and benefit policy – and how they affect households across Britain 28 March 2024 by Torsten Bell and Adam Corlett and Alex Clegg The beginning of April brings a new tax year, and a flurry of tax, benefit and pay policy changes coming into effect. Benefit levels are finally returning to their pre-pandemic levels after a difficult few years. Threshold freezes will continue to pull more people into paying tax, but the tax they pay on every extra … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances· Tax Back for more? Putting the 2024 Spring Budget in context 7 March 2024 by Camron Aref-Adib and Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try In this briefing note, we put the decisions in the Spring Budget 2024 in context, discussing how the economic outlook has changed, what that means for the public finances, and how the policy decisions taken at the Budget will affect living standards in both the short and the medium term. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances The Election Budget Spring Budget 2024 preview 21 February 2024 by Alex Clegg and Adam Corlett and Cara Pacitti and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites In this slide pack we preview the upcoming Budget, assessing the economic and fiscal outlook ahead of what will be a key pre-election economic-policy event. We focus on the scope for cutting taxes, and the implications of different policy choices, putting the Chancellor’s upcoming decisions in a broader context. We find that, despite near-term bad … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances A pre-election Statement Putting the Autumn Statement 2023 in context 23 November 2023 by Camron Aref-Adib and Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Sophie Hale and Lindsay Judge and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try In this briefing note, we put the decisions in the 2023 Autumn Statement in context, discussing how the economic outlook has changed, what that means for the public finances, and how the policy decisions taken will affect living standards in both the short and the medium term. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances Preparing the pitch Autumn Statement 2023 preview 6 November 2023 by Adam Corlett and Jonathan Marshall and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites In our Autumn Statement preview slidepack, we assess the economic outlook ahead of Jeremy Hunt’s Autumn Statement on November 22nd, and explore the policy choices facing the Chancellor as inflation drives up tax revenues, and interest rates drive up the cost of government debt. We find that the Chancellor is in difficult terrain: although the … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances We’re going on a growth Hunt Putting the 2023 Spring Budget in context 16 March 2023 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Sophie Hale and Karl Handscomb and Charlie McCurdy and Louise Murphy and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Krishan Shah and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try This report examines the economic backdrop to Budget 2023, and assesses whether the Chancellor has successfully delivered on his central objective of boosting growth through higher employment and business investment. READ MORE
