Public finances In the balance: public finances in the next parliament 25 November 2014 by Matthew Whittaker and Adam Corlett With the Coalition government expected to have delivered around half of its intended fiscal consolidation programme by the end of the current parliament, debates over public finances are set to loom large in the coming election campaign. To date, we have only very broad outlines of the preferred approaches of each of the main parties. … Continued READ MORE
Work Escape Plan: Understanding who progresses from low pay and who gets stuck 11 November 2014 by Conor D’Arcy and Alex Hurrell Our findings highlight that employees can move into higher paying roles but escaping completely from low pay is more difficult. Overall, the evidence presented in the report suggests that employers and government do have scope to develop the progression prospects of low paid staff. While much is already being done, there are particular groups of people … Continued READ MORE
Work Why 2014 hasn’t been the year of the pay rise 7 November 2014 by Matthew Whittaker and Laura Gardiner A downward shift in the mix of occupations across the workforce towards lower-paying cleaning and caring roles, along with a welcome return of younger and less experienced workers to the labour market, has prevented 2014 from being the year of the pay rise, as many economists predicted. This analysis looks at the impact of changes … Continued READ MORE
Work Low Pay Britain 2014 30 October 2014 by Adam Corlett and Matthew Whittaker This report is our fourth annual audit of low pay in Britain. It describes in detail the scale of the problem in the latest year for which data is available (2013) and the people it affects. As with many advanced economies, the British labour market has been characterised in recent decades by a growing polarisation. … Continued READ MORE
Work Turning Point? The minimum wage in 2014 and beyond 1 October 2014 by Matthew Whittaker and Adam Corlett With the National Minimum Wage (NMW) rising on October 1st, this briefing note provides some background by setting out the evolution of the wage since its introduction in April 1999. It looks at the rate’s real value over the intervening period, and its relationship with median pay. It also considers the number of people affected by the NMW … Continued READ MORE
Social security Universal Credit: A policy under review 9 September 2014 by David Finch and Adam Corlett and Vidhya Alakeson Resolution Foundation has brought together an expert panel of labour market economists, welfare specialists, employment practitioners and other experts to review the current design of Universal Credit and its likely impacts and propose changes that would make the policy more likely to support people to get into and progress in work. The cumulative impact of … Continued READ MORE
Housing More than a roof: How incentives can improve standards in the private rented sector 1 September 2014 The private rented sector is growing and, as it expands, it is housing an increasingly diverse group of tenants, including a higher proportion of people across every income decile and a growing number of families with children. However there are still a range of challenges associated with the sector which need to be addressed. These include variable standards of … Continued READ MORE
Childcare· Social security World Class: What does international evidence tell us about improving quality, access and affordability in the English childcare market 28 August 2014 by Kitty Stewart and Ludovica Gambaro A new Resolution Foundation report by leading childcare experts, Kitty Stewart of the LSE and Ludovica Gambaro of the Institute of Education, sets out a path for reform for the UK, offering the best ideas from abroad. Central to getting greater value for the £5.5 billion we already invest in childcare as well as future … Continued READ MORE
Housing Housing pinched: Understanding which households spend the most on housing costs 14 August 2014 by Laura Gardiner Close to 1.6 million UK households – the housing pinched – are spending more than half their disposable income on the ongoing costs of housing each month. Not all households spending more than one third of their income on housing (the threshold at which people are far more likely to find making housing payments difficult) … Continued READ MORE
Wealth Hangover Cure: Dealing with the household debt overhang as interest rates rise 24 July 2014 by Matthew Whittaker and Katie Blacklock The UK is entering a period in which interest rates are expected to start rising again – with the first moves potentially coming later this year – having insufficiently dealt with the debt overhang. This leaves the UK economy vulnerable to even modest increases in interest rates. Deconstructing the debt overhang will not be costless, but it is in everyone’s interests – borrowers, lenders, government and taxpayers alike – to adopt a pro-active measured approach rather than simply allowing it to collapse. We favour an orderly and managed dismantling of the debt overhang. This report sets out a series of recommendations for lenders, borrowers and policy-makers to make that happen. READ MORE
Work All accounted for: The case for an ‘all-worker’ earnings measure 9 July 2014 by Laura Gardiner The measures that we use to track earnings miss out the one in seven workers who is self-employed. Given continually rising self-employment and our knowledge that their earnings have taken a big hit in recent years, this briefing estimates what our most regular measure of earnings would look like with the self-employed included. Our more … Continued READ MORE
Housing· Savings & debt· Wealth Mortgaged Future: Modelling household debt affordability and access to re-financing as interest rates rise 20 May 2014 by Matthew Whittaker One in ten of today’s mortgagors risk being imprisoned by borrowing deals which are likely to make their repayments unaffordable as interest rates rise over the next four years. Around 770,000 households are both at risk of being ‘mortgage prisoners’ due to a limited ability to switch to better mortgage deals and therefore insulate themselves against future rate rises, and at risk of being ‘highly geared’ where monthly mortgage repayments are eating up at least one third of their disposable income by 2018. READ MORE
Work Just the Job or a Working Compromise? The changing nature of self-employment 6 May 2014 by Conor D’Arcy and Laura Gardiner The growth of self-employment has become one of the stories of the recovery. While the share of total UK employment accounted for by self-employment has risen for decades, bucking the trend internationally, its pace has accelerated since 2008. And while the number of employee jobs has only recently regained its pre-recession level, the number of … Continued READ MORE
Labour market enforcement· Work Zero-Hours Contracts: The latest figures and analysis 30 April 2014 by Laura Gardiner Workers on zero-hours contracts are much more likely to be underemployed, to be looking for another job, and to be without union membership than staff on conventional contracts. Almost three in 10 of all those on zero-hours contracts (29 per cent) are looking to work more hours – either in their current job or by … Continued READ MORE
Labour market enforcement· Work Zeroing In 25 March 2014 by Vidhya Alakeson and Conor D’Arcy The use of zero hours contracts should be reformed to ensure that flexibility can be maintained and workers’ rights strengthened to help eradicate misuse. This report makes a number of recommendations that respond to these concerns and seek to strike a better balance, providing protection and choice for workers while ensuring flexibility is maintained for … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances Have we lost our bouncebackability? 21 March 2014 by Matthew Whittaker In the light of latest OBR forecasts and the 2014 Budget, this paper considers where anticipated growth can come from. In the absence of widely-shared wage growth, can the UK economy grow above trend without a surge in credit? Or, must we resign ourselves to a period of subdued recovery? READ MORE
Tax Analysing the impact of increasing the personal tax allowance to £10,500 in 2015 18 March 2014 by Alex Hurrell A comparison of the effects of spending the same sum of money on two alternative tax reforms that are also being aired in the run-up to the Budget – raising the threshold at which workers have to pay NICs, and raising the higher rate tax thresholds so that fewer people get dragged into the 40 pence … Continued READ MORE
Work More than a minimum: The review of the minimum wage – Final report 12 March 2014 by James Plunkett and Alex Hurrell and Conor D’Arcy The final report of the Resolution Foundation’s review of the future of the National Minimum Wage. The review has worked for the past nine months under the chairmanship of Professor Sir George Bain, the founding chair of the Low Pay Commission, exploring whether the minimum wage and its supporting architecture could do more to tackle … Continued READ MORE
Work Minimum Wage Act II 21 February 2014 by James Plunkett and Conor D’Arcy and Tony Wilson The national minimum wage is no longer strong enough to tackle the country’s low pay problem and the policy will need to be reformed if it is to repeat the successes of its first 15 years. Professor Sir George Bain, the founding chair of the Low Pay Commission which recommends the rate of the minimum … Continued READ MORE
Incomes The State of Living Standards 11 February 2014 by James Plunkett and Alex Hurrell and Matthew Whittaker Household incomes are set to start rising again in 2015 after six years of decline according to the Resolution Foundation. The findings come in a detailed and authoritative assessment of the state of Britain’s living standards. However, the report from the independent think tank also finds that growth in disposable income for the typical household … Continued READ MORE
Childcare· Social security Careers and Carers: Childcare and maternal labour supply 23 January 2014 by Vidhya Alakeson and Giselle Cory Around two-thirds of mothers say the cost of childcare is an obstacle to them working more, reveals a new report from independent think tank the Resolution Foundation. In a survey conducted by the Resolution Foundation and Mumsnet for the report, 67 per cent of mothers in work and 64 per cent of those not working … Continued READ MORE
Savings & debt· Wealth Closer to the edge? Debt repayments in 2018 under different household income and borrowing cost scenarios 29 December 2013 by Matthew Whittaker Britain faces the mounting prospect of a household debt crisis as analysis from the Resolution Foundation suggests that a least a million British families, and possibly as many as 2 million, could be spending more than half their disposable income on repayments by 2018 The study uses the latest five-year growth projections from the Office … Continued READ MORE
Work· Growth Growth up, wages down: something has to give 5 December 2013 by Matthew Whittaker In Growth up, wages down we consider the relationship between growth, consumption, investment, incomes and earnings in order to ascertain just how far wage growth might need to rise in order to set the economy back on track. For the purposes of illustration we consider the magnitude of wage growth that might be required to return GDP … Continued READ MORE
Work Starting out or getting stuck? An analysis of who gets trapped in low paid work—and who escapes 27 November 2013 by Alex Hurrell Almost three-quarters of Britain’s workers who were on low pay in 2002 failed to escape from it over the course of the following decade. Both low pay and social mobility are recognised as serious concerns in Britain but much less attention has been given to how easy or hard it is for someone to work their … Continued READ MORE
Housing One foot on the ladder: how shared ownership can bring owning a home into reach 20 November 2013 by Vidhya Alakeson and Giselle Cory and Hannah Fearn A major expansion of newly built shared ownership could help low and modest income working families across the country onto the property ladder, while keeping their housing costs affordable. One foot on the ladder shows that shared ownership – where buyers purchase at least 25 per cent of the equity in a home and pay a low rent … Continued READ MORE
