Economy 2030 Adopt, adapt and improve A brief look at the interplay between labour markets and technological change in the UK 10 November 2022 by Rui Costa and Yuanhang Yu Worries that jobs will be lost to automation are not new, but have been heightened since the release of Frey and Osborne’s 2013 study, which warned that nearly half of jobs in the US were at ‘high risk’ of automation. Nearly a decade on, this short briefing note looks at both the current and longer-term … Continued READ MORE
Labour market enforcement· Labour market Policing prejudice Enforcing anti-discrimination laws in the workplace 8 November 2022 by Hannah Slaughter This briefing note is part of a three-year programme of research exploring labour market enforcement generously funded by Unbound Philanthropy. In it, we investigate the scale and nature of workplace discrimination, and consider how anti-discrimination rules can be enforced to greater effect. READ MORE
Monetary policy· Macroeconomic policy The art of expectations management A bleak outlook from the Bank of England as it scales back rate hike expectations 3 November 2022 by James Smith The Bank of England has raised rates by 75 basis points today – the eighth successive increase and the largest since 1989 – to 3 per cent, the highest since November 2008. Despite this historic rise, the big news was that the Bank signalled very clearly that market expectations for further rate rises had gone … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Mind the (credibility) gap Autumn Statement preview 1 November 2022 by Torsten Bell and Adam Corlett and Jack Leslie and Jonathan Marshall and Felicia Odamtten and Krishan Shah and James Smith and Lalitha Try In our Autumn-Statement preview slidepack, we present new analysis that explores the economic outlook ahead of the Autumn Statement on 17 November, and the critical decisions that the new Prime Minister and Chancellor must make. With the latest political turmoil triggered by attempts to completely rewrite economic policy, Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt are under … Continued READ MORE
Welfare Sticking plasters An assessment of discretionary welfare support 28 October 2022 by Karl Handscomb This briefing note looks at discretionary welfare support in recent years, including crisis provision, Discretionary Housing Payments, and more recently the Household Support Fund. Our analysis shows that discretionary support is increasingly being used as a sticking plaster for broader benefits cuts. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances· Tax Cutting tax cuts Jeremy Hunt rewrites Government’s economic policy 17 October 2022 by Torsten Bell and Adam Corlett and Karl Handscomb and Jonathan Marshall and James Smith The new Chancellor has rewritten UK economic policy in order to reduce the pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates and the Treasury to deliver spending cuts. He has now reversed 60 per cent of the tax cuts announced less than four weeks ago and committing to scale back support for energy … Continued READ MORE
Monetary policy· Housing Interesting times Assessing the impact of rising interest rates on mortgagors’ living standards 15 October 2022 by Lindsay Judge and Jack Leslie and Krishan Shah R. I. P. low interest rates: the cost of borrowing is seriously on the rise. Inflationary pressures in the economy have been pushing interest rates up for some time, and events since the Government’s mini-budget in September increased market expectations of how high interest rates will rise, and brought forward the date at which they … Continued READ MORE
Universal Credit· Welfare The Long Squeeze Benefit uprating policy for April 2023 13 October 2022 by Adam Corlett and Lalitha Try To offset the impact of tax cuts on the public finances, the Government is considering how it might cut spending. One option that has been discussed is the possibility of raising some benefits in line with earnings rather than inflation next April. This paper explores what this might entail, the potential savings and impacts, and … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030 Navigating Economic Change Lessons from abroad and history 12 October 2022 As the UK is buffeted by the economic shocks and challenges of the 2020s, the Resolution Foundation and LSE Economy 2030 Inquiry is publishing a series of essays examining how policy makers from a range of advanced economies, including the UK in the recent past, have managed periods of disruptive economic change. READ MORE
Monetary policy· Macroeconomic policy Macroeconomic Policy Outlook: Q3 2022 10 October 2022 by Jack Leslie and Krishan Shah and James Smith In this edition of the MPO we consider the nature of the inflation challenge facing the Bank of England and the impact of the ‘Mini Budget’ on it. Here it is important to remember that the colossal scale of the energy shock – which for household incomes could be three times the size of that … Continued READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Labour market Labour Market Outlook Q3 2022 6 October 2022 by Charlie McCurdy In the aftermath of the pandemic, the emergence of long Covid has increased focus on the relationship between work and ill health. But the prevalence of long Covid, thought to affect around 1 million workers, is lower than the pre-pandemic increase in the number of working-age disabled people (up by 2.3 million since 2013), with … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances What next? The impact of Trussonomics, tax cuts and market turmoil 29 September 2022 by Torsten Bell and Emily Fry and Karl Handscomb and Jack Leslie and Krishan Shah and James Smith The last few days have seen a radical reshaping of the Government’s economic policy and a radical reaction from financial markets. Out have gone both Treasury orthodoxy and the legacy of the Johnson premiership, and in are lower taxes, higher borrowing – and higher borrowing costs as spooked markets respond. Will this new strategy boost … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances Blowing the budget Assessing the implications of the September 2022 fiscal statement 24 September 2022 by Torsten Bell and Molly Broome and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Karl Handscomb and Lindsay Judge and Jack Leslie and Louise Murphy and Krishan Shah and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try The Chancellor decided to blow the budget in his first fiscal statement, bringing forward a £45 billion package of tax cuts, the biggest for 50 years. In this briefing note, we show that today’s Government is no longer fiscally conservative nor courting the Red Wall. Instead, debt is on course to rise in each and every year of the forecast period, and the focus has shifted to the South of England, where the beneficiaries of these tax cuts are more likely to be living. READ MORE
Living Wage Calculating the Real Living Wage for London and the rest of the UK: 2022 22 September 2022 by Nye Cominetti and Louise Murphy This report sets out the method through which the Living Wage (LW) rates – a voluntary hourly pay rate that is based on what families need to get by – in London and the rest of the UK are calculated by the Resolution Foundation, and overseen by the Living Wage Commission on behalf of the … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Housing Housing Outlook Q3 2022 17 September 2022 by Felicia Odamtten and Daniel Tomlinson With large increases in private rents reported over the last year, this Housing Outlook reflects on the short- and long-term challenges facing the 4.4 million private renting households in England today. READ MORE
Living standards· Public spending· Economy and public finances A blank cheque An analysis of the new cap on energy prices 13 September 2022 by Adam Corlett and Jack Leslie and Jonathan Marshall and James Smith Liz Truss’s first major act as Prime Minister was to set out a huge energy support package to reduce the scale of the living standards’ catastrophe this winter, with the Energy Price Guarantee (EPG) as its highlight. The EPG will mean that annual energy prices for the typical household are capped at £2,500 for two … Continued READ MORE
Living standards In at the deep end The living standards crisis facing the new Prime Minister 1 September 2022 by Adam Corlett and Lalitha Try This paper sets out projections for household living standards through to 2026-27. With the UK facing the largest two-year real income fall in at least a century, these forecasts make it clear that a big policy response will be needed from the new government. READ MORE
Incomes· Living standards· Prices & consumption A chilling crisis Policy options to deal with soaring energy prices 25 August 2022 by Mike Brewer and Emily Fry and Karl Handscomb and Jonathan Marshall This briefing note, released just ahead of the announcement of the winter 2022 energy price cap level, looks at the implications of an unprecedented jump in energy costs on low-to-middle income households, stresses the need for urgent and novel policy thinking to lessen this blow, and outlines how this could take shape. READ MORE
Living standards· Prices & consumption· Inequality & poverty Cutting back to keep warm Why low-income households will have to cut back on spending by three times as much as high-income households this winter 15 August 2022 by Karl Handscomb and Jonathan Marshall This winter, low-income households will have to reduce their spending by three times as much as high-income households in order to afford their energy bills – a situation that is particularly concerning now that we know energy bills in January-March 2023 are set to be an annualised £4,266, rather than the £2,800 expected earlier this … Continued READ MORE
Monetary policy· Economic growth· Macroeconomic policy Slower for longer The Bank of England tightens monetary policy again and warns that the outlook is bleak 4 August 2022 by Jack Leslie and James Smith The Bank of England today unveiled the biggest rise in interest rates since 1995 along with plans to bring down the stock of Quantitative Easing (QE) by £80 billion over the next year. But the real news in today’s announcements was the extent to which the central bank expects the cost of living crisis to … Continued READ MORE
Monetary policy· Living standards· Macroeconomic policy In the dread of winter Prospects for inflation in the coming months ahead of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Report 3 August 2022 by Jack Leslie In the face of the highest inflation rate for 40 years, many are predicting that the Bank of England will announce the largest interest rate rise in 27 years this week. This spotlight focuses on the challenges and uncertainties facing both the Bank of England and UK families from rising inflation this winter. Contrary to … Continued READ MORE
Pensions & savings Living pensions An assessment of whether workers’ pension saving meets a ‘living pension’ benchmark 28 July 2022 by Nye Cominetti and Felicia Odamtten Auto-enrolment has been successful in increasing pension saving participation among workers, especially those on lower incomes. However, given the improvements in take-up, the next pressing concern is whether workers are saving enough to deliver an adequate standard of living in retirement. A ‘Living pension’, parallel to the ‘Living wage’ could help us find the answer. … Continued READ MORE
Monetary policy· Economy and public finances· Tax· Macroeconomic policy· Political parties and elections Talking tax What’s been said and what’s gone unsaid in the Conservative leadership election? 26 July 2022 by Torsten Bell and Adam Corlett Elections are rarely entirely about a single issue, but there are exceptions. Brexit in the 2019 general election stands out, and today tax cuts totally dominate the 2022 Conservative leadership election. Judging by last night’s TV debate, the contest is staying that way, with little discussion of the huge questions facing the country, from the … Continued READ MORE
Household debt· Inequality & poverty· Wealth & assets Arrears fears The distribution of UK household wealth and the impact on families 20 July 2022 by Molly Broome and Jack Leslie The defining economic challenge for UK families at the moment is the cost of living crisis, rising inflation threatens living standards in the UK as real incomes fall. Owning wealth helps protect against the adverse effects, particularly for those who can rely on savings. Therefore, the current crisis has thrown wealth inequality into the spotlight. … Continued READ MORE
Economy 2030· Macroeconomic policy As good as it gets? The forces driving economic stagnation and what they mean for the decade ahead 18 July 2022 by James Smith With inflation at levels not seen since the early 1980s, it is clear that the UK is in the midst of a huge hit to real incomes. But the seeds for the devastating impact of the cost of living crisis were sown by a slump in growth that is unprecedented in the post-war period and … Continued READ MORE
