Labour market· Cities and regions The power of place The role of place in driving regional pay inequalities 23 June 2025 by Richmond Egyei and Emily Fry and Tasos Kitsos and Dalila Ribaudo and Greg Thwaites and Enrico Vanino Tracking English early-career workers using the Longitudinal Education Outcomes dataset, we show one-third of regional wage gaps arise from place, not people. Identical full-time workers earn about £1,300 (5 per cent) more by moving from Dudley to Harrogate. READ MORE
Ventures Impact & Learning Report 2024 16 June 2025 by Nicholas Andreou and Louise Marston and Aish Moothan Over the past four years, the Workertech Partnership has backed ambitious founders building solutions to improve pay, power, progression and wellbeing for people in low-paid and insecure work. We’ve made 16 investments supporting over 350,000 workers to date, and today, we’re publishing our 2024 Impact Report. It reflects on what we’ve achieved, what we’ve learned, … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending A healthy State? Putting the 2025 Spending Review into context 12 June 2025 by Camron Aref-Adib and Mike Brewer and Tom Clark and Alex Clegg and Adam Corlett and Ruth Curtice and Emily Fry and Zachary Leather and Charlie McCurdy and Felicia Odamtten and Simon Pittaway and James Smith and Greg Thwaites Yesterday saw the Chancellor reveal the results of the first ‘zero-based’ review since 2008, the first stand-alone Spending Review since 2019, and the first three-year plan since 2021. It was the Government’s chance to say what its priorities are after painful announcements on higher taxes and borrowing, and then welfare cuts, at the Autumn Budget … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events Mission impossible? Five things to look out for at next week’s pivotal Spending Review 4 June 2025 by Ruth Curtice and James Smith After a shaky start on the economy, Ministers have been happy to emphasise three trade agreements and some better-than-expected growth in recent weeks. They will hope the Spending Review (SR), on 11 June, can be a chance to build (build, build) on this, and to flesh out more concrete plans on the Government’s other ‘missions’. … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Welfare Renew and improve Setting up the Household Support Fund for the future 22 May 2025 by Alex Clegg and Ruth Patrick and Jed Meers and Mike Brewer and Uisce Jordan and Millie Light and Rhiannon Simms and Hayley Bennett and Beth Watts-Cobbe and Joe Pardoe This briefing note, part of the Safety Nets project, assesses how the Household Support Fund could be improved in a longer-term settlement, through analysis of administrative data and interviews with local authorities and recipients of the scheme. READ MORE
Universal Credit· Living standards· Welfare No workaround Assessing the impact of the Spring 2025 disability and incapacity benefit reforms on employment 20 May 2025 by Louise Murphy and Greg Thwaites In March, the Government released its Pathways to Work Green Paper, setting out a package of welfare reforms that amounted to a net reduction in spending of £4.8 billion in 2029-30. On the Government’s own figures, 3.2 million families will lose out, 250,000 people will fall into poverty, and 700,000 families will fall further below the poverty line. These benefit cuts were accompanied by a significant increase in employment support costing a cumulative £1.9 billion between 2026-27 and 2029-30 but with over half of that not coming until the final year. READ MORE
Welfare Limited ambition? An assessment of the rumoured options for easing the two-child limit 12 May 2025 by Alex Clegg and Adam Corlett Abolishing the two-child limit would be the most cost-effective way to reduce child poverty; if it is not scrapped, we project that 4.8 million children (34 per cent) will be in poverty by 2029-30, including half of all children in large families. [1] There has been speculation in recent weeks that the Government is considering … Continued READ MORE
Public spending· Economy and public finances Capital gains Public investment priorities for the 2025 Spending Review 29 April 2025 by Zachary Leather and Felicia Odamtten and Cara Pacitti and James Smith This report assesses the UK’s public investment challenges ahead of the 2025 Spending Review, highlighting legacy weaknesses in social infrastructure spending and setting out how targeted investment can boost growth and raise living standards. READ MORE
Universal Credit· Pensions & savings Saving penalties Reforming the capital rules in Universal Credit 24 April 2025 by Molly Broome and Alex Clegg and Ed Pybus Means-tested benefits in Britain are built on the principle that individuals with significant financial resources should use those before turning to the state for help. That’s why wealth – as well as income – is assessed when determining eligibility and entitlement levels for means-tested support. But while income means-testing has been widely studied and debated, … Continued READ MORE
Brexit & trade· Economic growth Trump Tariff turmoil The impact of higher US tariffs and the risk of a global recession 14 April 2025 by James Smith and Emily Fry and Greg Thwaites President Trump’s tariff announcements have taken a wrecking ball to the global system of international trade, pushing US tariff rates back to early 20th century levels. Following the suspension of ‘reciprocal’ tariffs, the UK’s exposure to automotive and possible “major” pharmaceutical tariffs, means we are set to be affected by more than many other countries, … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Migration Precarious prospects Understanding precarious work among foreign-born workers 14 April 2025 by Hannah Slaughter and Imogen Stone This briefing note examines the experiences of precarious work among foreign-born workers, how poor enforcement of rules can drag down standards for UK-born workers too, and what policy can do to respond. READ MORE
Net zero Turning up the heat Making the home heating transition work for low-income households 10 April 2025 by Zachary Leather and Jonathan Marshall Decarbonising home heating is one of the knottiest parts of the net zero transition, with big implications on families’ finances and behaviour. This report examines progress so far and discusses what policy needs to do so that families on lower incomes can benefit from changing how they keep warm at home. READ MORE
Living standards· Public spending At your service? Why the 2025 Spending Review must reckon with the distribution of public service use 9 April 2025 by Camron Aref-Adib and Emily Fry and Zachary Leather Post-Covid, the British state is estimated to have reached a historic high of 45 per cent of the size of the economy. Past strategies to cope with increasing pressure on public services such as cutting defence to help fund growing health and welfare spending, and cuts to ‘unprotected’ public services after the financial crisis, have … Continued READ MORE
Productivity & industrial strategy· Economic growth Yanked away Accounting for the post-pandemic productivity divergence between Britain and America 8 April 2025 by Simon Pittaway Britain’s record of productivity growth in the 2010s was dismal. But halfway through the 2020s things appear to have got worse not better, with official data likely understating the scale of Britain’s ongoing productivity crisis. America has been on a different track so far this decade. It is the only G7 economy where productivity growth … Continued READ MORE
Productivity & industrial strategy How to do industrial strategy A guide for practitioners 7 April 2025 by David Willetts This paper sets out a practical approach to industrial strategy in the UK, focused on boosting private investment and productivity. It proposes twenty policy tools spanning sectors, technologies, places, funding and state capability, with a clear roadmap for policymakers. READ MORE
Tax· Welfare Happy new tax year 2025 Tax, utility bill and social security changes in April 2025 3 April 2025 by Adam Corlett and Lalitha Try April brings with it a series of tax, benefit and bill rises. We examine what these changes will mean for households and the overall outlook for disposable incomes in 2025-26. READ MORE
Incomes· Low pay· Living Wage Minimum wage, maximum pressure? The impact of 2025’s minimum wage and employer NICs increases 30 March 2025 by Nye Cominetti and Greg Thwaites Looking ahead to the future of the minimum wage, we make four recommendations to the Government and the Low Pay Commission (LPC). First, tax policy should go with the grain of minimum wage policy, not against it… READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Living standards· Welfare Unsung Britain bears the brunt Putting the 2025 Spring Statement in context 27 March 2025 by Camron Aref-Adib and Mike Brewer and Molly Broome and Alex Clegg and Nye Cominetti and Adam Corlett and Ruth Curtice and Emily Fry and Zachary Leather and Jonathan Marshall and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Imogen Stone and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try This briefing note analyses the choices the Government has made in the context of an awkward backdrop to the 2025 Spring Statement. READ MORE
Universal Credit· Wellbeing and mental health A dangerous road? Examining the ‘Pathways to Work’ Green Paper 19 March 2025 by Mike Brewer and Alex Clegg and Louise Murphy Yesterday’s Green Paper marks a serious attempt by the Government to tackle two major concerns: the growing spend on disability benefits, and the large number of people who are not working through ill-health. [1] The proposals to tackle the former go much further than reforms suggested by the previous Government; between 800,000 and 1.2 million … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances The headroom bind Spring Statement 2025 preview 17 March 2025 by James Smith and Adam Corlett and Emily Fry and Louise Murphy and Cara Pacitti and Simon Pittaway and Greg Thwaites and Lalitha Try In this slide pack we preview the upcoming Spring Statement, assessing the economic and fiscal outlook ahead of this key economic-policy event. We focus on the news since the Autumn Budget and the implications of different policy choices, putting the Chancellor’s upcoming decisions in a broader context. READ MORE
Wellbeing and mental health· Welfare Delivering the undeliverable Five principles to guide policy makers through reforming incapacity and disability benefits 6 March 2025 by Louise Murphy The Government is set to announce a “radical” Green Paper on health-related benefit reform this Spring, and more immediate benefit cuts are expected ahead of the Spring Statement on 26 March. The backdrop is fast-rising spending on working-age health-related benefits: spending is set to rise by £32bn between 2019-20 and 2029-30, from 1.3% to 2.2% … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay Unstable Pay New estimates of earnings volatility in the UK 4 March 2025 by Mike Brewer and Nye Cominetti and Stephen P. Jenkins This report uses a newly available dataset – payroll data held by HM Revenue and Customs on over 250,000 working-age people covering April 2014 to March 2019 – to look at monthly and weekly volatility in employee pre-tax earnings. It is one of a very few UK studies to look at high-frequency earnings volatility on … Continued READ MORE
Net zero The grass is greener on the net zero side What the Seventh Carbon Budget tells us about the net zero transition 26 February 2025 by Zachary Leather In today’s Seventh Carbon Budget, the Climate Change Committee (CCC) recommends that, by 2038-42, the UK should reduce its emissions by 87 per cent on 1990 levels. To reach this, we must enter a new era of climate policy in which changes to families’ spending patterns will play a crucial role, primarily by swapping their … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Inequality & poverty Turning the tide What it will take to reduce child poverty in the UK 26 February 2025 by Alex Clegg and Adam Corlett Ahead of the Government’s Child Poverty Strategy, which promises to bring about “an enduring reduction in child poverty”, this report looks at what might be needed to achieve this welcome goal in the face of significant headwinds. READ MORE
Unsung Britain· Living standards· Incomes Money, money, money The shifting mix of income sources for poorer households over the last 30 years 17 February 2025 by Lalitha Try This briefing note examines the components of income for low-to-middle income families. It considers how income from earnings and benefits have changed over the last 30 years, and how fixed costs including taxes and housing costs have reduced the income available to low-to-middle income families. READ MORE
