Work· Labour Market Outlook The RF Earnings Outlook Q2 2015 12 October 2015 by Laura Gardiner Recent instalments of labour market data have painted a picture of steady but unspectacular growth in nominal wages, combined with zero inflation, producing real average weekly earnings growth above the pre-crisis trend. Labour productivity has started to rise but is essentially unchanged from its 2008 level, fuelling concerns that the pay recovery may prove short-lived … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Inequality & poverty A poverty of information: assessing the government’s new child poverty focus and future trends 7 October 2015 by David Finch Measures announced at the Summer Budget are expected to significantly increase the number of children (and households) living in poverty (households with less than 60 per cent of median income). Despite positive action on low pay, cuts to working age benefits mean that most of this increase is expected to be among those living in … Continued READ MORE
Work Low Pay Britain 2015 5 October 2015 by Adam Corlett and Laura Gardiner This is our fifth annual report on the prevalence of low pay in Britain. It uses the latest data available (2014) to map out the scale of low pay and the groups that are most affected. It shows how this has changed over recent decades and looks at what the coming years might hold, particularly … Continued READ MORE
Work Taking up the floor: exploring the impact of the National Living Wage on employers 15 September 2015 by Conor D’Arcy and Adam Corlett On average across the 6 million people affected, the NLW is expected to add £760 annually to pre-tax wages. In total, our analysis finds that £4.5 billion will be added to the wage bill of British firms in 2020. The question we turn to in this report – the second in a series investigating the … Continued READ MORE
Growth A recovery for all? The evolution of the relationship between economic growth and pay before, during and since the financial crisis 14 September 2015 by Matthew Whittaker In this note, we use the latest wage and National Accounts data to consider how the ‘wedge’ between productivity growth and median pay growth that arose prior to the financial crisis in the UK – and which appears to have become a feature across a range of advanced economies in recent decades – has developed … Continued READ MORE
Work Higher ground: who gains from the National Living Wage? 2 September 2015 by Conor D’Arcy and Adam Corlett and Laura Gardiner In this note, the first in a series looking at the opportunities and challenges associated with the National Living Wage, we focus specifically on who stands to gain. Which groups of workers will benefit, and by how much? And how does this wage legislation interact with the tax and benefits system, and therefore household incomes? … Continued READ MORE
Work A steady job? The UK’s record on labour market security and stability since the millennium 28 July 2015 by Paul Gregg and Laura Gardiner The story on pay is well-established but other aspects of job quality are less routinely measured. Therefore, in this note we return to some commonly-used broad measures of job security and stability, in particular to understand developments over the past two decades and how experiences have differed across genders and the generations. READ MORE
Work Completing the job: the pursuit of full employment 20 July 2015 by Matthew Whittaker and Paul Gregg While there is some consensus around the merits of pursuing full employment, there is no widely agreed definition of what constitutes ‘full’. Nor have we heard much on quite how any given target might be achieved. In this briefing– which marks the launch of a major piece of research on the topic which will conclude before … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances· Social security A Budget for workers? The impact of the Summer Budget on work incentives in Universal Credit 16 July 2015 by David Finch The combination of increases in the minimum wage (via the introduction of a National Living Wage), cuts to income tax and sharp reductions in working-age welfare presented in the Summer Budget produces a complex mix of winners and losers. Those not currently in receipt of benefits and tax credits (or Universal Credit) are likely to … Continued READ MORE
Work Analysing the National Living Wage: Impact and implications for Britain’s low pay challenge 10 July 2015 by Conor D’Arcy and Gavin Kelly The most eye-catching announcement in the Summer Budget was the National Living Wage (NLW). National Minimum Wage workers aged 25 and over will, from April 2016, receive a premium on top of the current legal wage floor, raising their hourly earnings from £6.70 to £7.20. Thereafter, the NLW is expected to rise steadily, surpassing £9 … Continued READ MORE
Tax Finding some relief: the case for applying fiscal discipline to tax expenditures 7 July 2015 by Adam Corlett Since becoming Chancellor in 2010, George Osborne has introduced a range of institutional changes to lock-in budget scrutiny, reduce borrowing and restrain welfare spending. But in relation to public ‘spending’ in the form of special tax rules or reliefs for particular groups, evaluation of value for money remains as weak as ever. Using a narrow … Continued READ MORE
Social security Making the most of UC: Final report of the Resolution Foundation review of Universal Credit 8 June 2015 by David Finch The improvements necessary to enable UC to, at a minimum, make work pay and smooth the transition into work must be made before millions of families are moved onto the new system. The start of the new parliament provides a natural opportunity to review the potential impact of UC and set out plans for its … Continued READ MORE
Work An Ocean Apart: the US-UK switch in employment and benefit receipt 4 June 2015 by Adam Corlett and Paul Gregg There was a time when some looked to the US model – in which out-of-work benefits are less readily available, time-limited and significantly less generous – for answers to the problem of extensive European levels of worklessness. This was particularly the case during the so-called ‘tough love’ era of the 1990s. The reforms of this … Continued READ MORE
Work· Savings & debt The self-employed and pensions 26 May 2015 by Conor D’Arcy The UK’s self-employed populace is now 4.5 million strong. Although there has been a modest fall in their numbers of late after years of rising, the self-employed look set to continue being a larger part of the workforce than in recent decades. While much has been made of their poor earnings performance relative to employees, … Continued READ MORE
Work Securing a pay rise: The path back to shared wage growth 25 March 2015 by Conor D’Arcy and Gavin Kelly After the longest fall in modern history, real wages have moved into positive terrain and appear to be turning the corner. Yet the outlook for wages – how strong and shared pay growth might be in the years ahead – remains highly uncertain. What emerges will shape not just what happens to living standards but … Continued READ MORE
Work Looking through the hourglass: hollowing out of the UK jobs market pre- and post-crisis 23 March 2015 by Laura Gardiner and Adam Corlett A large and growing body of research details the ‘hollowing out’ of developed labour markets (the relative decline of mid-skilled jobs and expansion of low- and high-skilled jobs) from the 1970s to the 2008-09 recession. Previous Resolution Foundation research (Plunkett & Pessoa, 2013) confirmed that these trends continued in the UK in the early years of … Continued READ MORE
Incomes Time to catch up? Living standards in the downturn and recovery 12 March 2015 by Matthew Whittaker width=”476″ height=”400″ frameborder=”0″ marginwidth=”0″ marginheight=”0″ scrolling=”no”> READ MORE
Work Who’s been getting a pay rise? 12 March 2015 by Laura Gardiner In this briefing we have attempted to provide some clarity on the recent debate – which has been a prominent feature of public narrative on the labour market – on the extent to which employees who remain in their jobs from one year to the next have experienced real pay rises. We have described the … Continued READ MORE
Social security Credit where it’s due? Assessing the benefits and risks of Universal Credit 9 March 2015 by David Finch and Vidhya Alakeson and Mike Brewer The government’s plans for Universal Credit (UC) were first set out in November 2010, and its concept has received broad cross-party support. But the process of implementation has been dogged by a series of delays – the OBR now anticipates that it will not be fully rolled out until at least 2020, potentially 3 years … Continued READ MORE
Work· Living Wage As if we cared: the costs and benefits of a living wage for social care workers 3 March 2015 by Laura Gardiner and Dr Shereen Hussein This report is the culmination of a year-long investigation into pay and conditions in social care, and the first authoritative study of the costs and benefits of moving to a living wage for all care workers. The report argues that pervasive low pay across the sector and tight budget constraints facing care providers means that paying … Continued READ MORE
Work The scale of minimum wage underpayment in social care 9 February 2015 by Laura Gardiner There is increasing recognition that a better deal for the workforce will be essential to the quality and sustainability of social care provision in the UK, but so far there has been scant evidence as to the scale of investment needed. The Resolution Foundation is currently undertaking a major investigation into the costs of improving … Continued READ MORE
Housing The Home Stretch: coping with high housing costs 8 December 2014 by Laura Gardiner and Vidhya Alakeson Despite the strain that high housing costs cause, millions of people on modest incomes continue to live in high cost areas and are somehow coping. The Resolution Foundation report explores six ‘coping strategies’ – working more, increasing the term of a mortgage, getting help from friends and family, over-crowding, lowering standards and doubling up. It … Continued READ MORE
Tax Missing the target: tax cuts and low to middle income Britain 1 December 2014 by Adam Corlett and Matthew Whittaker and Gavin Kelly This report has two main objectives. First, to assess the main political parties’ leading proposals on tax cuts for the next Parliament. Second, to consider whether there is a different approach to that advocated by the main parties that would better serve low and middle income Britain. READ MORE
Public finances In the balance: public finances in the next parliament 25 November 2014 by Matthew Whittaker and Adam Corlett With the Coalition government expected to have delivered around half of its intended fiscal consolidation programme by the end of the current parliament, debates over public finances are set to loom large in the coming election campaign. To date, we have only very broad outlines of the preferred approaches of each of the main parties. … Continued READ MORE
Work Escape Plan: Understanding who progresses from low pay and who gets stuck 11 November 2014 by Conor D’Arcy and Alex Hurrell Our findings highlight that employees can move into higher paying roles but escaping completely from low pay is more difficult. Overall, the evidence presented in the report suggests that employers and government do have scope to develop the progression prospects of low paid staff. While much is already being done, there are particular groups of people … Continued READ MORE
