Covid-19· Labour market enforcement· Labour market· Brexit & trade· Migration Home and away The UK labour market in a post-Brexit world 16 December 2020 by Kathleen Henehan and Lindsay Judge This briefing note considers a number of ways in which the labour market could be affected as the UK moves to a tighter, post-Brexit immigration regime in January 2021. Under the new rules, legal avenues for low-skilled migrant workers to enter the UK will be more restrictively drawn, with implications for firms, resident foreign-born workers … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19 Time out Reforming Statutory Sick Pay to support the Covid-19 recovery phase 8 December 2020 by Mike Brewer and Maja Gustafsson In a pandemic, sick pay should play a crucial public health role, as well as providing income protection. But the UK’s Statutory Sick Pay is low by international standards, and misses out two million of our lowest-paid workers. Evidence suggests that this contributes to the low level of compliance with the legal obligation to self-isolate … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Here today, gone tomorrow Putting Spending Review 2020 into context 26 November 2020 by Torsten Bell and Nye Cominetti and Karl Handscomb and Jack Leslie and Cara Pacitti and Hannah Slaughter and James Smith and Daniel Tomlinson This briefing note provides an assessment of the measures announced in the November 2020 Spending Review. The backdrop to that Review was the reality of an on-going health crisis and a huge hit to the economy which looks set to leave lasting damage to both household and public finances. In response, the Chancellor has ramped up coronavirus spending this … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Budgets & fiscal events· Economy and public finances The Covid state Analysis of the economy and public finances ahead of the 2020 Spending Review 20 November 2020 by Karl Handscomb and Jack Leslie and Cara Pacitti and Daniel Tomlinson and James Smith The Chancellor is set to unveil his Spending Review against a radically changed economic and fiscal backdrop to the one he faced in March. Although unemployment is set to peak lower and later than had been expected back in the Summer, the long-term economic scarring from this crisis is set to be significant. The OBR’s … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Incomes· Living standards Caught in a (Covid) trap Incomes, savings and spending through the coronavirus crisis 15 November 2020 by Karl Handscomb and Lindsay Judge In this briefing note we examine how the family finances of working-age adults have been affected since Covid-19 gripped the nation this spring. Drawing on new data from a representative survey of 6,000-plus working-age adults fielded in mid-September, we take a close look at how incomes, spending and saving changed during both the lockdown (April … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Fiscal policy· Economy and public finances· Tax· Macroeconomic policy Unhealthy finances How to support the economy today and repair the public finances tomorrow 11 November 2020 by George Bangham and Adam Corlett and Jack Leslie and Cara Pacitti and James Smith This report provides analysis of the dual challenges faced by the government: ensuring that there is sufficient fiscal support through the crisis and recovery, and setting fiscal policy on a sustainable long-term path. Some argue it is unsustainable to provide the massive government support during the crisis, while others see little constraint on government borrowing … Continued READ MORE
Pay· Living Wage Calculating the Real Living Wage for London and the Rest of the UK 2020-21 9 November 2020 by Nye Cominetti This report sets out the method through which the Living Wage rates in London and the rest of the UK are calculated by the Resolution Foundation and overseen by the Living Wage Commission on behalf of the Living Wage Foundation. The rate for the UK Living Wage for 2020-21 is £9.50. The rate for the … Continued READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Living Wage Earnings Outlook Q2 2020 Back in lockdown 8 November 2020 by Nye Cominetti As England enters its second lockdown the outlook for the labour market is as uncertain as at any point during the crisis (Wales and Northern Ireland are already in a second period of lockdown or tough restrictions, and restrictions in Scotland were increased a week ago). The story of recent weeks has been an accelerating … Continued READ MORE
Wales· Living standards· Cities and regions From locking down to levelling up The past, present and future of Welsh living standards 5 November 2020 by Charlie McCurdy Wales needs to move centre-stage in the UK’s ‘levelling up’ agenda as its strong performance on jobs has not been matched on pay packets, leaving the country struggling to reduce its living standards gap with the rest of the UK. READ MORE
Covid-19· Macroeconomic policy The Bank of England’s options for supporting the economy Lessons from the US 4 November 2020 by James Smith and Tony Yates Ahead of this week’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting, we discuss what recent changes to how US policy makers approach setting interest rates might tell us about what additional support the Bank of England could provide in the face of a second national lockdown. The most important change was the introduction of a ‘flexible average inflation … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Economic growth Wake me up when November ends The economic outlook amid Lockdown II 3 November 2020 by Torsten Bell We’ve got less than 48 hours until a second national lockdown in England begins, and who knows how long until it comes to an end. Pubs, hotels, and hairdressers’ doors will close again across England – as they have been in Wales since 23 October – with the significant tightening of restrictions representing the final … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Labour market enforcement· Labour market Failed safe? Enforcing workplace health and safety in the age of Covid-19 2 November 2020 by Lindsay Judge and Hannah Slaughter This briefing note is part of a three-year programme of research exploring labour market enforcement generously funded by Unbound Philanthropy. Using a new survey of 6,000-plus UK working-age adults fielded in September this year, and administrative data from the enforcement agencies themselves, we explore how workers, employers and the regulators have responded to the threat … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Housing Coping with housing costs, six months on… New findings from the Resolution Foundation's Covid-19 study - wave two 30 October 2020 by Lindsay Judge and Cara Pacitti In this spotlight, we use results from a new Resolution Foundation/Health Foundation survey to explore the impact that housing costs are having on living standards as the COVID-19 crisis continues to unfold. Despite some improvements in the labour market since the spring, housing costs continue to be a serious concern for many households as they … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19 Jobs, jobs, jobs Evaluating the effects of the current economic crisis on the UK labour market 27 October 2020 by Mike Brewer and Nye Cominetti and Kathleen Henehan and Charlie McCurdy and Rukmen Sehmi and Hannah Slaughter This report highlights which groups of workers have struggled the most as the coronavirus crisis has evolved, who is at risk as the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme is replaced by the Job Support Scheme, and the prospects for the future. READ MORE
Covid-19 Sorting it out The Chancellor moves to fix the Job Support Scheme 22 October 2020 by Daniel Tomlinson The Chancellor has sharply, and rightly, changed course to make Job Support Scheme (JSS) a functioning short-time work scheme, addressing its central flaw. Slashing the share of wages for hours not worked that employers must pay from 33 to just 5 per cent will make a big different to the cost of using the scheme. … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Incomes Back to the furlough U-turn to retain furlough scheme in closed sectors paves way for fresh lockdowns 9 October 2020 by Karl Handscomb and Cara Pacitti and Hannah Slaughter and Daniel Tomlinson The short-lived attempt to set economic policy as if we were leaving the pandemic behind us is over, with the Government announcing that it will pay two-thirds of wages of employees in firms forced to close because of national or local restrictions. This will provide much needed support, saving many jobs in the hospitality and … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Intergenerational Centre An intergenerational audit for the UK 2020 7 October 2020 by Laura Gardiner and Maja Gustafsson and Mike Brewer and Karl Handscomb and Kathleen Henehan and Lindsay Judge and Fahmida Rahman This Intergenerational Audit for the UK – supported by the Nuffield Foundation – provides the first comprehensive assessment of the initial phase of the coronavirus crisis for different generations in Britain. READ MORE
Covid-19· Welfare Safe harbour? Six key welfare policy decisions to navigate this winter 7 October 2020 by Karl Handscomb Despite the new Job Support Scheme, unemployment is set to rise substantially through the autumn and winter, as the Job Retention Scheme ends and the hospitality sector adjusts to new restrictions. This means many more individuals will soon be dependent on the social security system; and as the economy moves into the next phase of … Continued READ MORE
Universal Credit· Welfare Death by £1000 cuts? The history, economics and politics of cutting benefits for millions of households next April 2 October 2020 by Torsten Bell and Adam Corlett and Karl Handscomb The first Conservative Conference of a new parliament begins. It comes on the back of a surprisingly emphatic election win, but with rumblings beginning about the Chancellor’s plan to take £1,000 away from millions of low-income households in just six months’ time. At that conference it is George Osborne, not Rishi Sunak, that gets up … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Economy and public finances The Winter (Economy Plan) is coming Chancellor ramps economic support back up, but avoidable design flaws will limit its success in stemming the Autumn rise in unemployment 25 September 2020 by Torsten Bell and Mike Brewer and Adam Corlett and Karl Handscomb and Lindsay Judge and James Smith and Daniel Tomlinson Economic policy yesterday caught back up with the ramping back up of social distancing restrictions by the Prime Minister earlier in the week. The Chancellor rightly announced new measures rather than sticking to plans to phase out help for workers and firms. His most significant policy was the Job Support Scheme (JSS), an extended, … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Low pay Low Pay Britain 2020 23 September 2020 by Nye Cominetti and Hannah Slaughter This is our tenth annual Low Pay Britain report. Naturally, the focus of the report this year is on the coronavirus crisis: its impact on the low paid, and what this means for minimum wage policy. The low paid have already suffered the worst of the economic effects of this crisis; they are more likely … Continued READ MORE
Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy Macroeconomic Policy Outlook Q3 2020 21 September 2020 by James Smith and Jack Leslie This is our regular Macro Policy Outlook, providing a policy-focused take on the economy. In this edition, we focus on the labour market, and the prospects for unemployment. While the OBR forecast that the unemployment rate will rise to match its 1980s peak of 11.9 per cent, the Bank of England is projecting a rise … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Labour market Final furlough? Six months on from the start of the Job Retention Scheme 18 September 2020 by Daniel Tomlinson At its peak in early May the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (JRS) was supporting 8.9 million jobs. As the economy has opened up in recent months take-up of the scheme has been falling, to 4.8 million by 31 July. Of these, 3.5 million (over 10 per cent of private sector employees) were still furloughed in … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Incomes· Intergenerational Centre All together now? The impacts of the Government’s coronavirus income support schemes across the age distribution 9 September 2020 by Mike Brewer and Karl Handscomb This note looks at how policies to protect household incomes in the pandemic – the coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (JRS), the self-employment income support scheme (SEISS), and a significant boost to social security benefits – have been felt across different age groups during the first months of the crisis. READ MORE
Covid-19· Housing· Intergenerational Centre Under water How big will the negative equity crisis be, and who is at risk, in the aftermath of the coronavirus crisis? 2 September 2020 by Maja Gustafsson This report for the Resolution Foundation’s Intergenerational Centre focuses on two big questions: what is the likely scale of the possible low equity problem in the aftermath of the coronavirus crisis; and who is likely to be affected? First, the report shows that the scale of the possible low equity problem looks set to be … Continued READ MORE
