Work Employing new tactics: the changing distribution of work across British households 31 January 2016 by Paul Gregg and David Finch Inevitably, discussion of employment tends to focus on individuals. But this means that an understanding of how work – and the income that it brings – is shared across different types of households can be lost. During the 1980s and early-1990s employment became increasingly polarised in society, with increasing concentrations of workless single or couple … Continued READ MORE
Growth· Macroeconomic policy Renewed Interest: The role of monetary policy in crisis and beyond 28 January 2016 by Matthew Whittaker Interest rates are at an all-time low. The Bank of England’s base rate is about to enter its eighth year at 0.5 per cent – the lowest level in its history and its longest period of non-movement since the Second World War. Yet still UK inflation remains well below its 2 per cent target, bumping … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Scotland· Work· Growth State of working Scotland: living standards, jobs and pay 20 January 2016 by Conor D’Arcy and Gavin Kelly With only months to go until May’s Scottish Parliament elections, this report provides an analysis of the state of working Scotland. In particular, we focus on how Scotland’s labour market performed in the run-up to the economic downturn and in the recovery. READ MORE
Work· Cities and regions Paved with gold? Low pay and the National Living Wage in Britain’s cities 4 January 2016 by Adam Corlett The National Living Wage (NLW) will come into effect in April and is set to rise considerably over the rest of the parliament. This will mean a welcome pay rise for six million employees, but as an ambitious labour market policy it will present challenges. This short briefing focuses on the impact of the NLW … Continued READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Work The RF Earnings Outlook Q3 2015 15 December 2015 by Laura Gardiner The publication last month of the most reliable and comprehensive source on earnings presented a more muted picture of the early stages of the pay recovery than the more timely monthly series had indicated. More encouraging was the information below the headlines, particularly the fact that the recovery was strongest among the lowest earners. In … Continued READ MORE
Generations· Demographics The pinch: How the baby boomers took their children’s future – and why they should give it back 10 December 2015 by David Willetts The accompanying slide pack for David Willetts’s speech to Keele University, exploring the differences between the baby boomers and younger generations, looking at wealth and welfare in particular. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances O, blessed revisions: fiscal windfall and what to do with it 26 November 2015 by Matthew Whittaker Resolution Foundation’s Autumn Statement analysis, including: Economic outlook Public finances outlook Taxes and benefits Public services The changing state READ MORE
Work Care to pay? Meeting the challenge of paying the National Living Wage in social care 12 November 2015 by Laura Gardiner The announcement of the National Living Wage is extremely welcome news for care workers, spelling a pay rise for up to 1 million of them by 2020 and having a significant impact on household budgets. Other recent developments have the potential to spur further improvements for a workforce that is poorly paid and faces casualised … Continued READ MORE
Public finances Shape shifting: the changing role of the state during fiscal consolidation 10 November 2015 by Matthew Whittaker and Adam Corlett and David Finch Resolution Foundation’s latest analysis looks at the changing size and shape of the state and what decisions the government will need to make going forward. READ MORE
Social security The tax credit crunch: how to limit the losses for low-income families 5 November 2015 by David Finch Resolution Foundation’s latest analysis of the impact of tax credit cuts explores the effect of Summer Budget changes in 2016 on incomes and incentives, and explores ways to offset the losses. READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Work The RF Earnings Outlook Q2 2015 12 October 2015 by Laura Gardiner Recent instalments of labour market data have painted a picture of steady but unspectacular growth in nominal wages, combined with zero inflation, producing real average weekly earnings growth above the pre-crisis trend. Labour productivity has started to rise but is essentially unchanged from its 2008 level, fuelling concerns that the pay recovery may prove short-lived … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Inequality & poverty A poverty of information: assessing the government’s new child poverty focus and future trends 7 October 2015 by David Finch Measures announced at the Summer Budget are expected to significantly increase the number of children (and households) living in poverty (households with less than 60 per cent of median income). Despite positive action on low pay, cuts to working age benefits mean that most of this increase is expected to be among those living in … Continued READ MORE
Work Low Pay Britain 2015 5 October 2015 by Adam Corlett and Laura Gardiner This is our fifth annual report on the prevalence of low pay in Britain. It uses the latest data available (2014) to map out the scale of low pay and the groups that are most affected. It shows how this has changed over recent decades and looks at what the coming years might hold, particularly … Continued READ MORE
Work Taking up the floor: exploring the impact of the National Living Wage on employers 15 September 2015 by Conor D’Arcy and Adam Corlett On average across the 6 million people affected, the NLW is expected to add £760 annually to pre-tax wages. In total, our analysis finds that £4.5 billion will be added to the wage bill of British firms in 2020. The question we turn to in this report – the second in a series investigating the … Continued READ MORE
Growth A recovery for all? The evolution of the relationship between economic growth and pay before, during and since the financial crisis 14 September 2015 by Matthew Whittaker In this note, we use the latest wage and National Accounts data to consider how the ‘wedge’ between productivity growth and median pay growth that arose prior to the financial crisis in the UK – and which appears to have become a feature across a range of advanced economies in recent decades – has developed … Continued READ MORE
Work Higher ground: who gains from the National Living Wage? 2 September 2015 by Conor D’Arcy and Adam Corlett and Laura Gardiner In this note, the first in a series looking at the opportunities and challenges associated with the National Living Wage, we focus specifically on who stands to gain. Which groups of workers will benefit, and by how much? And how does this wage legislation interact with the tax and benefits system, and therefore household incomes? … Continued READ MORE
Work A steady job? The UK’s record on labour market security and stability since the millennium 28 July 2015 by Paul Gregg and Laura Gardiner The story on pay is well-established but other aspects of job quality are less routinely measured. Therefore, in this note we return to some commonly-used broad measures of job security and stability, in particular to understand developments over the past two decades and how experiences have differed across genders and the generations. READ MORE
Work Completing the job: the pursuit of full employment 20 July 2015 by Matthew Whittaker and Paul Gregg While there is some consensus around the merits of pursuing full employment, there is no widely agreed definition of what constitutes ‘full’. Nor have we heard much on quite how any given target might be achieved. In this briefing– which marks the launch of a major piece of research on the topic which will conclude before … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public finances· Social security A Budget for workers? The impact of the Summer Budget on work incentives in Universal Credit 16 July 2015 by David Finch The combination of increases in the minimum wage (via the introduction of a National Living Wage), cuts to income tax and sharp reductions in working-age welfare presented in the Summer Budget produces a complex mix of winners and losers. Those not currently in receipt of benefits and tax credits (or Universal Credit) are likely to … Continued READ MORE
Work Analysing the National Living Wage: Impact and implications for Britain’s low pay challenge 10 July 2015 by Conor D’Arcy and Gavin Kelly The most eye-catching announcement in the Summer Budget was the National Living Wage (NLW). National Minimum Wage workers aged 25 and over will, from April 2016, receive a premium on top of the current legal wage floor, raising their hourly earnings from £6.70 to £7.20. Thereafter, the NLW is expected to rise steadily, surpassing £9 … Continued READ MORE
Tax Finding some relief: the case for applying fiscal discipline to tax expenditures 7 July 2015 by Adam Corlett Since becoming Chancellor in 2010, George Osborne has introduced a range of institutional changes to lock-in budget scrutiny, reduce borrowing and restrain welfare spending. But in relation to public ‘spending’ in the form of special tax rules or reliefs for particular groups, evaluation of value for money remains as weak as ever. Using a narrow … Continued READ MORE
Social security Making the most of UC: Final report of the Resolution Foundation review of Universal Credit 8 June 2015 by David Finch The improvements necessary to enable UC to, at a minimum, make work pay and smooth the transition into work must be made before millions of families are moved onto the new system. The start of the new parliament provides a natural opportunity to review the potential impact of UC and set out plans for its … Continued READ MORE
Work An Ocean Apart: the US-UK switch in employment and benefit receipt 4 June 2015 by Adam Corlett and Paul Gregg There was a time when some looked to the US model – in which out-of-work benefits are less readily available, time-limited and significantly less generous – for answers to the problem of extensive European levels of worklessness. This was particularly the case during the so-called ‘tough love’ era of the 1990s. The reforms of this … Continued READ MORE
Work· Savings & debt The self-employed and pensions 26 May 2015 by Conor D’Arcy The UK’s self-employed populace is now 4.5 million strong. Although there has been a modest fall in their numbers of late after years of rising, the self-employed look set to continue being a larger part of the workforce than in recent decades. While much has been made of their poor earnings performance relative to employees, … Continued READ MORE
Work Securing a pay rise: The path back to shared wage growth 25 March 2015 by Conor D’Arcy and Gavin Kelly After the longest fall in modern history, real wages have moved into positive terrain and appear to be turning the corner. Yet the outlook for wages – how strong and shared pay growth might be in the years ahead – remains highly uncertain. What emerges will shape not just what happens to living standards but … Continued READ MORE
