Labour Market Outlook· Labour market· Pay The RF Earnings Outlook Q3 2016 21 December 2016 by Laura Gardiner and Torsten Bell Two big 2016 events dominate our view of the labour market and likely developments in the coming years – the introduction of the National Living Wage (NLW) in April, and the result of the EU referendum in June. This final Earnings Outlook of the year – capturing data up to Q3 – provides an opportunity … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Productivity & industrial strategy· Low pay· Pay Industrial strategies? Exploring responses to the National Living Wage in low-paying sectors 20 December 2016 by Conor D’Arcy This report provides another contribution to evidence on the impact of the National Living Wage to date. READ MORE
Living standards· Productivity & industrial strategy· Cities and regions Midlands engine trouble: The challenges facing the West Midlands Combined Authority 12 December 2016 by Conor D’Arcy In May 2017, residents of the West Midlands Combined Authority (WMCA) will go to the polls to elect its first ‘Metro Mayor’. The WMCA – comprising Birmingham, Coventry, Dudley, Sandwell, Solihull, Walsall and Wolverhampton councils – is also at the heart of the government’s wider ‘Midlands Engine’, which aims to boost the economy of this … Continued READ MORE
Labour market Secret Agents: agency workers in the new world of work 5 December 2016 by Lindsay Judge and Daniel Tomlinson Through the course of this report we have uncovered much new information about the lives of the UK’s ‘secret agents’. We have found two groups of agency workers – the permanent and the self-employed – who have been missing from all previous accounts. We have discovered what agency workers do, where they work and who … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Productivity & industrial strategy· Cities and regions New Order: devolution and the future of living standards in Greater Manchester 29 November 2016 by Stephen Clarke In May 2017 Greater Manchester will go to the polls to elect the region’s first ‘Metro Mayor’. Greater Manchester has been at the forefront of the current programme of devolution and the new mayor will wield more power than any other city leader. However, it will be on the results of how this power is … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Bending the rules: Autumn Statement response 24 November 2016 by Adam Corlett and David Finch and Laura Gardiner and Matthew Whittaker Our morning after briefing for Autumn Statement 2016. READ MORE
Living standards· Economy and public finances· Political parties and elections In the swing of things: what does Donald Trump’s victory tell us about America? 18 November 2016 by Daniel Tomlinson and Stephen Clarke Post-election analysis has highlighted the importance of demographic, economic and cultural factors in the US election result. In this slide pack we consider why different parts of America voted as they did. We look across 93 per cent (2,932 of 3,143) of US counties spread across 46 states including the 11 battleground states. We test … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Living standards· Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances· Welfare Under New Management: options for supporting ‘just managing’ families at the Autumn Statement 7 November 2016 by David Finch and Matthew Whittaker The new Prime Minister has been very clear in her determination to put the interests of ‘just managing’ families at the heart of her government, but she has inherited tax and benefit plans which are set to lower incomes for many in the group over the remainder of the parliament. With post-EU referendum revisions to projections for … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Tax Changing Tax: pressing reset on the UK’s tax policy 5 November 2016 by Matthew Whittaker In this note, we consider how the Chancellor might reset the UK’s tax policy in the Autumn Statement, with a particular focus on the personal allowance threshold and corporation tax. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Pressing the reset button: the public finance options facing the new Chancellor at the Autumn Statement 5 November 2016 by Matthew Whittaker In the run up to the Autumn Statement, the Chancellor has already indicated the need for a fiscal ‘reset’. While this has been over-interpreted as a hint of a radical shift in macro-economic policy, it simply represents recognition of the need to drop his predecessor’s fiscal pledges if he is to avoid making significant additional … Continued READ MORE
Pay· Living Wage Calculating a Living Wage for London and the rest of the UK 31 October 2016 by Conor D’Arcy and David Finch This paper sets out the method for determining the independently-calculated Living Wage rates in London and the rest of the UK, and the respective rates that will apply from 31 October 2016. It is built on the findings of a report published by the Resolution Foundation in July 2016 and the views of the Living Wage … Continued READ MORE
Living standards· Productivity & industrial strategy· Cities and regions· Economic growth City living: devolution and the living standards challenge 20 October 2016 by Stephen Clarke Significant devolution is planned for Britain’s major city regions. The powers that may soon be devolved are, in terms of recent history if not international comparisons, unprecedented in scope. In May 2017 some cities will elect a region-wide Mayor which will provide fresh political impetus. Furthermore, Theresa May’s new government has signalled her support for … Continued READ MORE
Low pay· Pay· Living Wage Low Pay Britain 2016 18 October 2016 by Stephen Clarke and Conor D’Arcy This is our sixth annual report on the prevalence of low pay in Britain. It uses the latest data available (2015) to map out the scale of low pay and the groups that are most affected. It shows how this has changed over recent decades and looks at what the coming years might hold, particularly … Continued READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Labour market· Pay The RF Earnings Outlook Q2 2016 18 October 2016 by Adam Corlett The second quarter of 2016 marked both the introduction of the National Living Wage and the vote to leave the European Union. There are tentative signs that the former has led to strong shared pay growth without affecting aggregate unemployment, but more data will be needed. Referendum effects are not yet visible, but Q2 2016 … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Tax Double take: workers with multiple jobs and reforms to National Insurance 1 October 2016 by Adam Corlett and David Finch The tax treatment of workers with multiple jobs may be reformed as part of proposals by the Office of Tax Simplification (OTS) to more closely align National Insurance (NI) and income tax. The current system of NI largely operates on a per job – rather than per person – basis, allowing a worker with two … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Living standards· Inequality & poverty Hanging on: the stresses and strains of Britain’s ‘just managing’ families 29 September 2016 by David Finch New governments have no record on which to be judged, meaning that a great deal of emphasis is placed on what they say. Our new Prime Minister has made it clear that her government will focus its attention on working families with relatively low earnings – those who are ‘just managing’. That approach has been … Continued READ MORE
Demographics· Living standards· Intergenerational Centre· Political parties and elections Votey McVoteface: Understanding the growing turnout gap between the generations 23 September 2016 by Laura Gardiner Renewing the intergenerational contract relies on broad engagement in the democratic process across the generations. This is not least the case because any new policy agenda will require public support, in order for democratically-elected politicians to pursue it. In this light, the generational turnout gap that has opened up since the mid-1990s – and was … Continued READ MORE
Living standards Examining an elephant: globalisation and the lower middle class of the rich world 13 September 2016 by Adam Corlett The UK’s vote to leave the EU, the US presidential election and proposed free trade deals have all prompted renewed debate about the winners and losers of globalisation. The two decades before the financial crisis were “a heyday of global trade integration” in which international trade as a share of the global economy rose dramatically. … Continued READ MORE
Social care· Labour market· Low pay· Pay Rising to the challenge: early evidence on the introduction of the National Living Wage in the social care sector 30 August 2016 by Laura Gardiner While broadly welcomed by business, the introduction of the National Living Wage (NLW) – the new higher minimum wage for workers aged 25 and over – has sparked some concerns about affordability and prompted discussions around likely employment responses – especially in lower-paying sectors where the wage increase is set to bite hardest. It will … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay· Migration A Brave New World: how reduced migration could affect earnings, employment and the labour market 16 August 2016 by Stephen Clarke In the wake of the vote to leave the European Union it seems likely that the UK will adopt a new immigration regime, moving away from the current free movement of people within the EU and possibly extending the current points-based-system that applies to those outside the European Union. Given the government’s promise to bring … Continued READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Labour market· Pay The RF Earnings Outlook Q1 2016 15 August 2016 by Laura Gardiner Overshadowing the latest outturn data for the labour market, and our picture of the UK economy more widely, is the UK’s decision to leave the EU. It will take some time before the effects of this decision make themselves felt in the hard economic data, but a detailed look at the pre-referendum jobs market can … Continued READ MORE
Pay· Living Wage Making the Living Wage: The Resolution Foundation review of the Living Wage 27 July 2016 by Conor D’Arcy and David Finch The recommendations outlined in this review aim to further strengthen the Living Wage campaign. They set out an improved Living Wage methodology to underpin the campaign as it moves into the next stage of its development while being more firmly grounded in the cost of living. READ MORE
Brexit & trade· Economic growth· Political parties and elections The Importance of Place: explaining the characteristics underpinning the Brexit vote across different parts of the UK 15 July 2016 by Stephen Clarke and Matthew Whittaker Post-referendum analysis has highlighted the importance of demographic, economic and cultural factors on individuals’ vote. In this note, we consider the importance of place; highlighting the extent to which those same factors matter across 378 of Britain’s 380 local authorities. We test the strength of the relationship between these different factors and the vote while holding … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Low pay· Pay· Living Wage The first 100 days: early evidence on the impact of the National Living Wage 11 July 2016 by Conor D’Arcy and Matthew Whittaker In this briefing note, we combine official data and a bespoke survey to better understand employers’ initial reaction to the announcement and implementation of the National Living Wage and their plans for the future. We also consider the implications of the Brexit vote for the future trajectory of the NLW. READ MORE
Labour market Robot wars: automation and the labour market 4 July 2016 by Adam Corlett Should we be concerned that robots will ‘take all the jobs’? Certainly there is no shortage of exciting new technologies on the horizon and, although predictions of technological unemployment have never yet come to pass, it is worth assessing what we know about our labour market and automation. READ MORE
