Covid-19· Household debt· Pensions & savings· Wealth & assets Rainy days An audit of household wealth and the initial effects of the coronavirus crisis on saving and spending in Great Britain 22 June 2020 by George Bangham and Jack Leslie Families in Great Britain are faced with the most severe economic contraction in more than 100 years. Much of the immediate focus among policy makers has been on the size and distribution of falls in families’ incomes but household wealth, both savings and debt, will play a hugely important role in shaping how far families’ … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Labour market· Cities and regions Local differences Responding to the local economic impact of coronavirus 14 June 2020 by Charlie McCurdy Britain’s jobs crisis has hit every part of the country hard. At a headline regional level, job loss and furloughing has been fairly evenly spread. But increases in unemployment-related benefit claims have been larger in areas that started out with higher claimant rates, with this especially true when we focus at a more local level. … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Incomes· Living standards Return to spender Findings on family incomes and spending from the Resolution Foundation’s coronavirus survey 9 June 2020 by Mike Brewer and Laura Gardiner Based on the Resolution Foundation’s new coronavirus survey of 6,000 working-age adults, this briefing note explores family spending during the crisis, with a focus on how outcomes have differed across the working-age income distribution. READ MORE
Labour market enforcement· Covid-19· Low pay A new settlement for the low paid Beyond the minimum wage to dignity and respect 3 June 2020 by Torsten Bell and Nye Cominetti and Hannah Slaughter This crisis is shared, but its burden is not. From health risks to job losses, it is the UK’s 4.2 million low-paid workers on whom this pandemic has imposed the greatest cost, and of whom the efforts to combat it have required the greatest sacrifice. Lower earners are three times as likely to have lost … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Housing Coping with housing costs during the coronavirus crisis Flash findings from the Resolution Foundation’s coronavirus survey 30 May 2020 by Lindsay Judge Many (including us) have speculated about how families may be managing their housing costs during the coronavirus crisis. In this spotlight we move from conjecture to firm evidence, presenting findings from our new survey of UK working-age adults on levels of housing stress, and how families in different housing tenures are coping. We find that … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy The Macroeconomic Policy Outlook Q2 2020 28 May 2020 by James Smith and Tony Yates This is the second Macro Policy Outlook, providing a policy-focused take on the economy. In this edition, we bring together the insights from new research into the impact of coronavirus on the economy with the latest data on its effects, in order to draw out the lessons for policy makers. There are three key takeaways. … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19 This time is different – Universal Credit’s first recession Assessing the welfare system and its effect on living standards during the coronavirus epidemic 27 May 2020 by Mike Brewer and Karl Handscomb When the UK went into lockdown, Universal Credit faced an unprecedented surge in claims. This report assesses how the system coped, how families on UC are managing, and what the Government should do to get UC ready for future challenges. READ MORE
Covid-19· Economy and public finances Public finances under pressure Lessons for policy makers from April’s public finance figures 22 May 2020 by Torsten Bell and Charlie McCurdy and Cara Pacitti April’s Public Sector Finances data capture the first full month of the coronavirus lockdown and provide a sobering reminder of the fiscal costs of the pandemic. Public sector net borrowing was £62.1 billion last month, the highest level ever recorded and nearly three time higher than the last record of £22 billion in April 2012. … Continued READ MORE
Incomes· Inequality & poverty· Wealth & assets· Tax Who gains? The importance of accounting for capital gains 21 May 2020 by Adam Corlett and Arun Advani and Andy Summers This report looks at what we know about taxable capital gains; how our understanding of top income shares changes if we include capital gains in our analysis; and whether official statistical definitions of income should be changed or supplemented. READ MORE
Covid-19· Intergenerational Centre Young workers in the coronavirus crisis Findings from the Resolution Foundation’s coronavirus survey 18 May 2020 by Maja Gustafsson The coronavirus crisis is expected to hit workers hard, with evidence from previous crises indicating that the young are likely to be affected to a greater degree than most. In this spotlight we move from speculation to evidence, presenting new findings on how different age groups – and in particular the young – have been … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Labour market The effects of the coronavirus crisis on workers Flash findings from the Resolution Foundation’s coronavirus survey 16 May 2020 by Laura Gardiner and Hannah Slaughter The coronavirus crisis has hit workers hard: the numbers of those furloughed and those newly claiming Universal Credit illustrates the scale. To date, however, we have had very limited information about which types of people have been most affected. In this spotlight, we begin to fill this gap with flash findings from the Resolution Foundation’s … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19 The economic effects of coronavirus in the UK Utilising timely economic indicators 14 May 2020 by Jack Leslie and Charlie McCurdy Our roundup of timely indicators of the impact of coronavirus which aims to plug the gap left by traditional measures of economic activity which are not timely enough to capture these effects. Updated weekly. READ MORE
Covid-19 Getting Britain working (safely) again The next phase of the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme 12 May 2020 by Torsten Bell and Laura Gardiner and Daniel Tomlinson The Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (JRS) has been a major public policy success. The unprecedented step of paying 80 per cent of the wages for 6.3 million jobs has made it possible to ask people to stay at home to save lives. This paper explores how the JRS should evolve as restrictions on activity are … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Macroeconomic policy Optimism in a time of coronavirus While undoubtedly gloomy, today’s Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Reports from the Bank of England envisage little lasting damage to the economy or financial system 7 May 2020 by Jack Leslie and James Smith Today the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee provided its first major assessment of the impact of coronavirus on the economy. The MPC envisage growth this year to be the weakest in over 300 years, with a fall of 25 per cent expected in the second quarter, and a fall of 14 per cent for … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Skills· Intergenerational Centre Class of 2020 Education leavers in the current crisis 6 May 2020 by Kathleen Henehan The economic fallout from the coronavirus has taken the UK into uncharted territory, with fears that an additional 640,000 18-24-year-olds could find themselves unemployed this year alone. This briefing note focuses specifically on the prospects facing young people leaving full-time education today, highlighting the size and length of employment and pay scarring that they could … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19 Risky business Economic impacts of the coronavirus crisis on different groups of workers 28 April 2020 by Maja Gustafsson and Charlie McCurdy The coronavirus crisis has affected everyone. Everyone’s health is at risk and to combat the disease, working lives have been altered across the country. But some are affected more than others: the relationship between the kind of job people have and their exposure to big economic or health risks in this crisis is by no … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Labour market Launching an economic lifeboat The impact of the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme 20 April 2020 by Daniel Tomlinson Summary Today marks the opening of the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (JRS), a scheme entirely without precedent in the UK. Its primary objective is to share the economic pain of this crisis by keeping unemployment much lower than it otherwise would have been. Indeed, although we estimate that non-working could increase by as much … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Low pay· Pay What happens after the clapping finishes? The pay, terms and conditions we choose for our care workers 19 April 2020 by Nye Cominetti and Laura Gardiner and Gavin Kelly The nation has rightly come together in the current crisis to express support for our care workers. But how do we normally treat the social care workforce? Due to both long-standing and nearer-term decisions and trends, frontline care workers are: underpaid, with around half earning less than the real Living Wage; particularly vulnerable to being … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Fiscal policy· Labour market· Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy Doing more of what it takes Next steps in the economic response to coronavirus 16 April 2020 by Richard Hughes and Jack Leslie and Charlie McCurdy and Cara Pacitti and James Smith and Daniel Tomlinson The Government has responded to coronavirus by shutting down large parts of the UK economy, and socialising the costs of doing so through a package of fiscal support to firms and individuals unprecedented in size and scope. Given uncertainty about how long public health restrictions will need to be in place, economic policy makers need to be prepared to manage what could … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Housing Housing Outlook Q2 2020 Housing and the coronavirus income shock 9 April 2020 by Lindsay Judge and Cara Pacitti We analyse what the coronavirus income shock means for families as they seek to manage their housing costs in the coming months, and assess the ways they are being helped to weather the storm. READ MORE
Covid-19· Labour market· Low pay· Pay· Skills· Migration Crystal balls vs rear-view mirrors The UK labour market after coronavirus 7 April 2020 by Hannah Slaughter and Torsten Bell Summary Sudden and significant hits to the UK labour market in recent weeks have shown that this will be a jobs recession. The focus has rightly been on how to respond to the huge numbers of people losing work, but policy makers and pundits are also beginning to ask what this crisis could mean for … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Welfare No work, no pay Supporting unemployed people through coronavirus 1 April 2020 by Mike Brewer and Karl Handscomb This recession is a labour market recession, with the public health response to coronavirus swiftly shutting down employment-heavy sectors of the economy. Although the Government has rightly committed billions of pounds to support employers, encourage retention and bail out the self-employed, it is inevitable that unemployment will rise. For those who lose their job or … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Labour Market Outlook· Labour market· Pay Earnings Outlook Q4 2019 How should minimum wage policy respond to the current economic crisis? 28 March 2020 by Nye Cominetti and Karl Handscomb Usually in the Earnings Outlook we summarise the latest developments in pay and employment and use these to look forwards, with the trends moving slowly enough that the lag in our data is not too much of a problem. But with so much having changed so quickly, our normal indicators now serve as a guide … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Macroeconomic policy Helicopters on standby? With rates at all-time lows, the Bank of England needs a different playbook for this crisis 26 March 2020 by James Smith and Tony Yates With a big recession on the way, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee would normally be unveiling measures to support the economy today, and this piece would be discussing what they’ve done. But we are not in normal times. Instead, the Bank of England does not have the option of cutting rates in the … Continued READ MORE
Covid-19· Fiscal policy· Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy Safeguarding governments’ financial health during coronavirus What can policymakers learn from past viral outbreaks? 25 March 2020 by Richard Hughes In the wake of the coronavirus outbreak, governments have taken unprecedented steps to protect the health of their citizens and support their economies. They now need to take extraordinary steps to safeguard their own financial health through what could be a protracted period of economic disruption necessary to contain and eradicate the virus. This paper … Continued READ MORE
