Economy and public finances· Political parties and elections Oven-ready, safety-first Assessing the Conservatives' 2019 manifesto 24 November 2019 by Torsten Bell Summary Brexit is happening, but big tax cuts aren’t. That’s the short version of the already fairly short Conservative Manifesto. This manifesto does not tell us much about what the Conservatives would do after 31st January 2020, but it does confirm the country faces a big choice in this election on the size of the … Continued READ MORE
Political parties and elections Doubling down on a bigger state Assessing Labour’s 2019 manifesto 22 November 2019 by Torsten Bell Summary Labour have doubled down on plans to increase the size of the state, and their ambitious spending pledges have been matched by ambitious revenue-raising plans. There is now a very big choice facing the country on the size of the state it wants, and how it should be funded. Their manifesto also builds on … Continued READ MORE
Low pay· Labour market· Pay· Living Wage Ain’t no minimum high enough Minimum wage policy in the 2019 General Election 18 November 2019 by Nye Cominetti Summary Minimum wage increases since 2015 delivered a £3bn pay boost to low-paid workers last year – highlighting the benefits of cross-party consensus over a more ambitious wage floor. Both main parties are right to propose plans for an even higher wage floor, but should proceed carefully, and be prepared to change course if needed. … Continued READ MORE
Labour market· Pay More than we bargain for Learning from new debates on how institutions can improve worker pay and security in Anglo-Saxon economies 15 November 2019 by Daniel Tomlinson The UK’s tight labour market is delivering improvements for many, but big challenges remain that current policies and debates aren’t yet rising to meet. The UK can learn from emerging discussions and policy innovations in other Anglo-Saxon economies. READ MORE
Public spending· Economy and public finances· Tax The shifting shape of UK tax Charting the changing size and shape of the UK tax system 13 November 2019 by Adam Corlett Ahead of the general election, this report looks at how and why levels of UK taxation have changed over time; how its make-up has shifted; the challenges facing the tax system, and what the parties may propose to do about it. READ MORE
Incomes· Labour market· Low pay· Pay Feel poor, work more Explaining the UK’s record employment 12 November 2019 by Torsten Bell and Laura Gardiner There is no bigger change to our economy over the past decade than the employment boom. We argue that this has been driven by the deep post-crisis income squeeze. This pushed up labour supply via more workers, and a pause in the long-term decline in working hours. READ MORE
Pay· Living Wage Calculating a Living Wage for London and the rest of the UK 2019-20 11 November 2019 by Nye Cominetti This report sets out the method through which the Living Wage rates in London and the rest of the UK are calculated by the Resolution Foundation on behalf of the Living Wage Foundation. READ MORE
Housing Inequality street Housing and the 2019 general election 9 November 2019 by Daniel Tomlinson Political parties’ housing policies need to tackle the reasons for the public’s heightened concern about housing: low home ownership rates, high housing costs and the burden of high costs falling particularly on those with lower incomes. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances· Economic growth Rewriting the rules Assessing Conservative and Labour’s new fiscal frameworks 7 November 2019 by Torsten Bell and Matthew Whittaker and Cara Pacitti and Jack Leslie Fiscal rules are technical frameworks only ever focused on by a tiny fraction of the population. But they are important for government’s running of our public finances, and for having a sense of where we are heading as a country. READ MORE
Labour Market Outlook· Labour market· Low pay· Pay The Resolution Foundation Earnings Outlook Q2 2019 7 November 2019 by Nye Cominetti and Jack Leslie In our Earnings Outlook for 2019 Q2 we suggest that the UK’s 12 year long pay squeeze may be about to come to an end, just in time for the election. But for many groups, typical pay is still well below its previous peak, READ MORE
Fiscal policy· Economy and public finances· Political parties and elections The shape of things to come Charting the changing size and shape of the UK state 4 November 2019 by Matthew Whittaker This report marks the first in a series of pre-election pieces that focus on the fiscal backdrop to the vote. It takes a long-run view of the size and shape of government spending in the UK, and considers how things might change under the next government. READ MORE
Fiscal policy· Macroeconomic policy Totally (net) worth it The next generation of UK fiscal rules 29 October 2019 by Richard Hughes and Jack Leslie and Cara Pacitti and James Smith The UK needs new fiscal rules which put improving net worth at the centre, enable the government to borrow to invest, are robust to a wide range of scenarios, and allow fiscal policy to play a lead role in stabilising the economy. READ MORE
Demographics· Intergenerational Centre Ageing, fast and slow When place and demography collide 28 October 2019 by Charlie McCurdy Demographic divergence matters for local government, for local economies, and for our politics. This report describes differences in ageing in different regions across the UK, and examines the implications for our politics and policy. READ MORE
Welfare· Intergenerational Centre A fraying net The role of a state safety net in supporting young people develop and transition to an independent, healthy future 22 October 2019 by Laura Gardiner and Fahmida Rahman This report reviews the state-provided financial safety net available to young adults, and how it has changed over time. It finds that young people have always relied more on benefits than working-age adults. But this gap has narrowed over recent decades, as governments have increasingly deprioritised welfare support for young people. READ MORE
Fiscal policy· Macroeconomic policy Britannia waives the rules? Lessons from UK and international experience with fiscal rules 21 October 2019 by Richard Hughes and Cara Pacitti and Jack Leslie The UK’s current fiscal rules will expire in 2020-21 and all major political parties have committed to replacing them. This paper explores the lessons from UK and international experience that can help set the UK’s next generation of fiscal targets. READ MORE
Incomes· Living standards· Prices & consumption· Inequality & poverty· Welfare The benefit freeze has ended, but erosion of the social security safety net continues Expected benefit uprating in April 2020 16 October 2019 by Adam Corlett Major working-age benefits will rise in cash terms in April 2020, for the first time in five years. But while the benefit freeze has now ended, its effect of significantly weakening the social security safety net has not. READ MORE
Incomes· Living standards· Inequality & poverty· Social mobility Tackling structural inequality should sit at the heart of boosting living standards 8 October 2019 by Fahmida Rahman Tackling inequality is a long game, particularly when faced with deeply embedded structural inequalities. And understanding how structural inequality plays out across different people, places and points in time requires the adoption of a new focus within the researcher and policy making community. READ MORE
Fiscal policy· Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy Seeking public value The case for balance sheet targeting in fiscal policy 29 September 2019 by Richard Hughes With the government’s current fiscal rules set to expire next year, this paper makes the case for government’s next fiscal framework to move beyond the narrow focus on debt and include a target which encompasses its entire balance sheet of assets and liabilities. READ MORE
Fiscal policy· Economy and public finances· Macroeconomic policy Dealing with ‘no deal’ The economic policy response to a ‘no deal’ Brexit 19 September 2019 by Richard Hughes and Jack Leslie and Cara Pacitti and James Smith This report provides a framework for understanding what role macroeconomic policy can play in alleviating the economic impact of a ‘no deal’ Brexit. READ MORE
Wealth & assets· Tax· Political parties and elections The huge Brexit Party tax cut for rich remain areas 16 September 2019 by Adam Corlett and Torsten Bell In this paper we examine the policy of abolishing inheritance tax, the new top priority announced by the Brexit Party. We find that the proposal would amount to an expensive giveaway to a tiny number of very wealthy households, largely living in the richest parts of the country and concentrated in remain voting constituencies. READ MORE
Labour market enforcement· Labour market From rights to reality Enforcing labour market laws in the UK 16 September 2019 by Lindsay Judge and Nye Cominetti Today’s labour market looks nothing like it did even a decade ago. With more women in the workplace than ever before, the decline of key sectors such as retail and manufacturing and the rise of self-employment, who works, where we work and the ways that we work have all changed significantly over time. Laws and … Continued READ MORE
Fiscal policy· Macroeconomic policy Recession ready? Assessing the UK’s macroeconomic framework 9 September 2019 by James Smith and Jack Leslie and Cara Pacitti and Fahmida Rahman This report is the launch paper for the Resolution Foundation’s Macroeconomic Policy Unit. It provides the most comprehensive assessment of the UK’s macroeconomic policy framework since the financial crisis, focusing on the ability of the framework to provide effective support to the economy in the face of the next recession. This work is important, given … Continued READ MORE
Macroeconomic policy Quantitative (displ)easing? Does QE work and how should it be used next time? 7 September 2019 by Jack Leslie and Fahmida Rahman and James Smith and Joe Gagnon After the financial crisis, central banks purchased massive amounts of long-term bonds to stimulate economies. These purchases have come to be known as quantitative easing (QE) and have been hugely controversial – barely a third (37 per cent) of UK Members of Parliament, when polled, support its use in future. In theory, QE stimulates the … Continued READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Rounding up Putting the 2019 Spending Round into context 4 September 2019 by Daniel Tomlinson and Torsten Bell and Matthew Whittaker and Adam Corlett In his September 2019 Spending Round the Chancellor rightly declared he was “turning the page” on austerity and “writing a new chapter in our public services”. But he has also ripped up his own fiscal rulebook, almost certainly breaking the fiscal ‘mandate’ in the near-term and casting significant doubt over his ability to keep debt falling as a share of GDP over the coming years. READ MORE
Budgets & fiscal events· Public spending· Economy and public finances Breaking the rules Analysing the credibility of the Chancellor’s commitment to keep to his fiscal rules 31 August 2019 by Daniel Tomlinson and Torsten Bell The Chancellor is shortly to deliver the first spending round (SR) of the post-austerity era. Although he is only setting departmental budgets for 2020-21, this event will mark a turning point in our political and economic debates as it brings to an end almost 10 years of austerity. The politics of this SR are relatively … Continued READ MORE
